Robert and Cam are better than Tom and Peyton, but...

[Skinsinparadise]

Oldfan

Greg Cosell from NFL films, who I threw some posts at you on a different thread. Cosell is sort of becoming the defacto accepted study film expert by the NFL shows. you might be interested in these links. His position doesn't perfectly dovetail yours (he for example factors supporting cast as key but also esteems the value of a QB higher in importance) but he does on a number of points -- he's a big into a QB's skill set is by a mile the key, loves Bill Walsh and thinks him being ahead of the curve helped his QBs succeed, loves Cutler, etc. Here are some excerpts from those 2 articles.

http://nflfilms.nfl.com/2012/02/23/c...quarterbacking

Coach Walsh always believed the play of the quarterback could be, and, in fact, had to be manipulated and managed by the passing game schematics and by extension the play-calling. You had to understand the quarterback’s physical attributes, and structure the offense, specifically the passing game, accordingly. I remember him telling me that he threw the skinny post with Dan Fouts (Walsh was the Chargers’ offensive coordinator in 1976, for one season), but not with Joe Montana. He said Montana could not make that throw very well. The overriding point was this: the passing game concepts, i.e., route combinations and reading progressions, had to maximize the quarterback’s strengths and minimize, or even eliminate, his limitations. Walsh was the first coach to apply this conceptual construct, and he forever changed the way in which coaches design pass offense.

http://nflfilms.nfl.com/2012/02/07/c...e-quarterback/

All these traits are visible and discernible on film. They are some of the subtleties of quarterback play, the nuances demanded at the NFL level. It’s a highly disciplined craft. Critical moments in big games are not defined by random and arbitrary play. It’s tangible and quantifiable skills that most often produce the memorable plays. Eli Manning has reached the point in his development in which he has mastered many of them. Manning simply plays the position the right way. That’s the reason he performs well in the fourth quarter. It’s a function of measurable attributes that produce consistent execution over time.

[elkabong82]

When comparing athletes I always prefer to look at how they are performing in comparison to their peers. I feel that cross-era comparisons are difficult and require a lot of context, but that the peer-to-peer comparison lets you know how they stack up in the league in their own time. The quality of their competition has to be considered as well. The greater the competition, the greater that players' standing.

RG3 right now is performing like a top of the league QB, and his competition is really, really tough. Brees, Rodgers, Brady, Peyton are all first ballot HOFers, and you still have some other QBs playing who have won multiple Superbowls and are likely HOFers, though a lot of their success is also thanks to their team.

The future is bright, and right now Shanny looks like a genius for doing the trade.

[ILikeBilly]

I don't know if there is a way to grade it, but we all have seen over and over again these WRs, some no-names and others great, but they just make these incredible catches for QBs like Brady, Manning, Montana (and I see it alot with P Rivers in San Diego.) I think it is because of ball placement and velocity. It is like the ball sticks in the receivers gut or floats down like a feather (when needed.) This makes the good QBs great. Drives are extended, TDs are scored and magic happens - a Taurus becomes a Maseratis. A rising tide raises all ships and the same could be said about QBs. It may not add up to Super Bowls, but it does add up to victories and playoff appearances.

[Oldfan]

What exactly is the point? You say intangibles are for "BS artists" but then say "Well, intangibles do matter, too".

Read this again. "I ignore the intangibles because they can't be seen and graded with any accuracy." It doesn't matter how important the intangibles are. What matters is that when we try to compare QBs, they can't be graded with reliable accuracy.

I don't get how this makes Newton and RG3 better than Peyton and Brady.

You didn't get this?

I group QBs into "pocket passers" and "QB-athletes." Cam Newton and RG3 are QB-athletes. Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are pocket passers. I rank the athletic QBs higher than pocket passers because they are more valuable weapons. They can beat you with both their arm and their legs. Against the same opponent, the pocket passers need more support to win.

[Oldfan]

Oldfan

Greg Cosell from NFL films, who I threw some posts at you on a different thread. Cosell is sort of becoming the defacto accepted study film expert by the NFL shows. you might be interested in these links. His position doesn't perfectly dovetail yours (he for example factors supporting cast as key but also esteems the value of a QB higher in importance) but he does on a number of points -- he's a big into a QB's skill set is by a mile the key, loves Bill Walsh and thinks him being ahead of the curve helped his QBs succeed, loves Cutler, etc. Here are some excerpts from those 2 articles.

http://nflfilms.nfl.com/2012/02/23/c...quarterbacking

Coach Walsh always believed the play of the quarterback could be, and, in fact, had to be manipulated and managed by the passing game schematics and by extension the play-calling. You had to understand the quarterback’s physical attributes, and structure the offense, specifically the passing game, accordingly. I remember him telling me that he threw the skinny post with Dan Fouts (Walsh was the Chargers’ offensive coordinator in 1976, for one season), but not with Joe Montana. He said Montana could not make that throw very well. The overriding point was this: the passing game concepts, i.e., route combinations and reading progressions, had to maximize the quarterback’s strengths and minimize, or even eliminate, his limitations. Walsh was the first coach to apply this conceptual construct, and he forever changed the way in which coaches design pass offense.

http://nflfilms.nfl.com/2012/02/07/c...e-quarterback/

All these traits are visible and discernible on film. They are some of the subtleties of quarterback play, the nuances demanded at the NFL level. It’s a highly disciplined craft. Critical moments in big games are not defined by random and arbitrary play. It’s tangible and quantifiable skills that most often produce the memorable plays. Eli Manning has reached the point in his development in which he has mastered many of them. Manning simply plays the position the right way. That’s the reason he performs well in the fourth quarter. It’s a function of measurable attributes that produce consistent execution over time.

You hooked me onto Cosell in an earlier thread and much of his theory in grading QBs dovetails with my own.

You talked about Walsh fine-tuning the QB's results by adding some plays and eliminating others. This is something that a decent youth coach does for his QBs. You find out what throws he can make and those he can't you eliminate. As I recall, Steve Young and Joe Montana had identical INT percentages down to four places.

One thing often missed is that coaching to win championships and coaching to make the QB look good are two very different things. To me, the Indianapolis strategy could have been designed by Archie Manning because it seemed designed intelligently to make the QB look good and not so bright if the goal was to win championships.

[Burgold]

[/COLOR]That's right. If you graded QBs intelligently, you'd come to the same conclusion.[COLOR="Gold"]

Peyton Manning isn't driving a Maserati and he is still putting up better numbers than Cutler, heck, Cutler even has Marshall as his engine.

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorysta...2&d-447263-n=1

Or... last season, when Peyton went out we saw what happened to the entire Colts offensive. They went from perrenial playoff contenders to a team that very nearly went 0-16.

[GoSkins561]

[/COLOR]That's right. If you graded QBs intelligently, you'd come to the same conclusion.[COLOR="Gold"]

Peyton Manning isn't driving a Maserati and he is still putting up better numbers than Cutler, heck, Cutler even has Marshall as his engine.

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorysta...2&d-447263-n=1

[Burgold]

[/COLOR]That's right. If you graded QBs intelligently, you'd come to the same conclusion.[COLOR="Gold"]

Peyton Manning isn't driving a Maserati and he is still putting up better numbers than Cutler, heck, Cutler even has Marshall as his engine.

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorysta...2&d-447263-n=1

Or... last season, when Peyton went out we saw what happened to the entire Colts offensive. They went from perrenial playoff contenders to a team that very nearly went 0-16.

[NLC1054]

Cam is not better than Brady or Peyton Manning.
RGIII is not not better than Brady or Peyton Manning, yet.

But let's stick with Cam. Cam has not improved since his break out season last year. In fact, Cam's monster season slowed down significantly over the last few weeks of his rookie season as teams finally figured out how to defense him. This year, Cam has left big plays and points on the field, missing the kind of throws that Brady and Manning make routinely. I'm not saying they don't miss throws. But their knowledge of the games and of defense concepts outweighs the physical attriubutes they lack.

I know you view Tom Brady as a system quarterback, Oldfan; that you could basically put anyone in Tom Brady's place and the Patriots would be just fine. I seem to recall you saying that Marc Bulger physically was about the same as Brady and would put up the same numbers.

But Tom Brady is twice the quarterback Cam is right now. Cam leaves point on the field. He relies heavily on his run game and on his legs to move the chains. He misses wide open receivers because he still doesn't trust what he sees.

I mean, just look at this play;



Cam's got two touchdowns on this play and plenty of time to throw.. This is the kind of play that pre-snap Tom Brady diagnoses right away. But instead, Cam goes with this little swing out pass. Both those throws are throws Cam can easily make.



Cam's got Greg Olsen wide open down the seam, he's got no pressure, but on this play, he decided to scramble for 5.

Cam plays like that all the time. He doesn't trust what he sees. He trusts his legs more than his arm. Could he get better? Absolutely. Is he better than Brady or Manning now? Hell to the no.

[Ashburn Dave]

I also suggest people stop popping into the thread at this point just to "contribute" this kind of post (no reflection on AD who is a fine poster, himself). At this point it's a response worthy of a spam violation. Argue the OP.

If it came across as spam then my apologies. I was actually buying some of the OP until I read that comparison. Arguing with OF is a waste of time IMO based on how his other threads read. They can be entertaining and create a debating thread but he is set in his opinions so arguing can be a futile exercise. I'll move on from posting in this thread since I don't want to get myself in any further trouble.

[GoSkins561]

Or... last season, when Peyton went out we saw what happened to the entire Colts offensive. They went from perrenial playoff contenders to a team that very nearly went 0-16.

Yeah, i've been hung up on this argument that Jay Cutler is better than Manning for a while now, clearly do not understand what oldfan is trying to say.

[Oldfan]

[/COLOR]That's right. If you graded QBs intelligently, you'd come to the same conclusion.[COLOR="Gold"]

Peyton Manning isn't driving a Maserati and he is still putting up better numbers than Cutler, heck, Cutler even has Marshall as his engine.

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorysta...2&d-447263-n=1

Peyton is running the same scheme he's used for 15 years. It's designed to put up useless numbers. I doubt he will win as many games as Tebow did in Denver.

---------- Post added October-6th-2012 at 02:24 PM ----------

Yeah, i've been hung up on this argument that Jay Cutler is better than Manning for a while now, clearly do not understand what oldfan is trying to say.

It's not rocket science. I don't grade QBs by team stats. I grade them on the tangibles -- what they can do with their arms and their legs. Manning can't pass as well as Jay Cutler and he doesn't use his legs as well as Cutler.

I could go a lot further into the finer points, but that's the bottom line.

[planter]

There are pocket passers and then there are POCKET passers.

Watch Brady' s pocket awareness, the peripheral vision, and ability to evade the pressure by taking a few quick steps .

Hopefully RG3 gets there.....with an occasional signature 30 yard scamper!

[Oldfan]

Cam is not better than Brady or Peyton Manning.
RGIII is not not better than Brady or Peyton Manning, yet.

But let's stick with Cam. Cam has not improved since his break out season last year. In fact, Cam's monster season slowed down significantly over the last few weeks of his rookie season as teams finally figured out how to defense him. This year, Cam has left big plays and points on the field, missing the kind of throws that Brady and Manning make routinely. I'm not saying they don't miss throws. But their knowledge of the games and of defense concepts outweighs the physical attriubutes they lack.

I know you view Tom Brady as a system quarterback, Oldfan; that you could basically put anyone in Tom Brady's place and the Patriots would be just fine. I seem to recall you saying that Marc Bulger physically was about the same as Brady and would put up the same numbers.

But Tom Brady is twice the quarterback Cam is right now. Cam leaves point on the field. He relies heavily on his run game and on his legs to move the chains. He misses wide open receivers because he still doesn't trust what he sees.

I mean, just look at this play;

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/A4ZS8rICMAAWIi5.png:large

Cam's got two touchdowns on this play and plenty of time to throw.. This is the kind of play that pre-snap Tom Brady diagnoses right away. But instead, Cam goes with this little swing out pass. Both those throws are throws Cam can easily make.

http://cdn0.sbnation.com/imported_as...hot_medium.png

Cam's got Greg Olsen wide open down the seam, he's got no pressure, but on this play, he decided to scramble for 5.

Cam plays like that all the time. He doesn't trust what he sees. He trusts his legs more than his arm. Could he get better? Absolutely. Is he better than Brady or Manning now? Hell to the no.

My argument has to do with the talent demonstrated by Cam and Robert compared to the talent demonstrated by Brady and Manning. I'm not saying that Cam makes less mistakes than those two or that RG3 is playing his scheme perfectly. I'm saying that Manning and Brady, on their own, will never present the threat to defenses that Robert and Cam represent.

[NLC1054]

[/COLOR]It's not rocket science. I don't grade QBs by team stats. I grade them on the tangibles -- what they can do with their arms and their legs. Manning can't pass as well as Jay Cutler and he doesn't use his legs as well as Cutler.

I could go a lot further into the finer points, but that's the bottom line.

In his first 7 seasons, Manning had a 63.5 completion percentage, 29,442 passing yards, 6 seasons with over 4,000 yards passing, threw an average of 31 touchdowns and 17 interceptions a season.

In Cutler's 6 full seasons he has a 61.1 completion percentage, 18,283 passing yards, only one season with 4,000 yards passing, and throws an average of 21 touchdowns to 14 interceptions a season.

Does Jay have a better physical skillset than Peyton? Yeah. Is Jay a better quarterback than Peyton? No. For many of the same reasons that Cam having a better physical skillset doesn't make him a better quarterback. Jay certainly hasn't always had the best talent around him, but Cutler has a knack for untimely turnovers, there are times when he pats and holds the ball too long waiting for somethingg to come open, and overall his desposition can leave must to leave desired.

It seems to me that you want to remove statistics and intangibles from the discussion to better fit your definition of what a great quarterback is.