One of the Redskins BIGGEST continued failings, both sides of the ball: 3rd down conversions/ stops.

[superozman]

Out of the 14 conversions, 2 were thanks to a penalty (StL and TB), which brings us down to executing 12. Of the twelve, 8 were passing, 4 were rushing. However, of the 4 rushing, only one was Alfred Morris.

So just putting everything together – the Redskins are not a threat on 3rd down out of the backfield, in researching the below, a lot ended up 1 or 2 yards short, no WR or TE has came out as the “GO TO GUY”, as Davis and Moss have the only multiple 3rd down conversion receptions. Morris’s only 3rd down carry that resulted in a first down he only needed 1 yard.

Redskins 3rd down Conversions:

Atlanta (1 conversion)
77 Yard pass to S. Moss (Cousins) TD 3rd and 9

Tampa Bay (3 conversions)
8 yard rush Griffin (fumble/TD/Garcon) 3rd and 5
15 yard Penalty 3rd and 19
30 yard pass to N. Paul 3rd and 9

Cincinnati (2 conversions)
14 yard pass to F. Davis 3rd and 5
9 yard run by RGIII 3rd and 7

St. Louis (5 conversions)
12 yard pass to A. Robinson 3rd and 5
10 yard rush + 15 yard penalty 3rd and 18
9 yard pass to J. Morgan 3rd and 7
15 yard rush by RGIII 3rd and 10
8 yard pass to F. Davis 3rd and 1

New Orleans (3 conversions)
6 yard pass to B. Banks 3rd and 5
4 yard rush by A. Morris 3rd and 1
27 yard pass to S. Moss 3rd and 6

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

Thanks for the time and effort in breaking down this years offensive third downs superozman. Greatly appreciated.

That makes even more woeful reading when you see recent stats in black and white.

Hail.

[WhoRUSupposed2Be]

It'll get better before it gets worse.

[NLC1054]

It's part of the whole feast or famine thing, and part of the reason I think the whole "Kyle's too conservative" thing is silly. It seems to me like we're aggressive on 1st and 2nd down and it either works real well or it doesn't work at all. Dumbass penalties at bad times are hurting us too.

Like I said, I think the offense will get it together, though. Kyle's still trying to figure out the best way to use the new toy.

Still think it'll get better before the season is done.

I have no such faith about the defense.

[superozman]

Thanks for the time and effort in breaking down this years offensive third downs superozman. Greatly appreciated.

That makes even more woeful reading when you see recent stats in black and white.

Hail.

No problem, I had a moment, made sense to look at it more. Just unreal that they average 2.4 3rd down conversions per game. A few drives have been all 1st and 2nd down before the TD, or a failed 3rd for a FG.

And thats 4 games in a row a RB has not converted a 3rd down.

[LaxinFish29]

That's all well and good when we hit the big play on first or second bro'. (And to date, it's to RGIII's credit that he we have.).

I agree completely with your OP but we cant blame Kyle for the bad and not give him credit for the good.

Are there times RGIII made that percentage better? Sure, but shouldnt he do the same on 3rd?

[Skins Wingman]

offensively, on 3rd down we need to spread the field to allow rg3 an option to scramble if noone is open. choose plays where the receivers routes create voids in the defense so if need be, rg3 can take off and get the 1st down with his legs. im still waiting for him to have that 30+ yard scramble that kills the defense confidence

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

On offense, I think part of it is the way defenses play us. Teams don't blitz Robert. When Kirk came into the game, you saw the defenses turn up the heat. But other than that one corner blitz off the edge early? Teams don't bring the heat on him.

Third down is usually a blitz down, or a pressure down. It's the exact opposite with Robert since teams are scared of him hitting the big play with his arm, or scrambling for a first down. So teams rush 3-4, and they drop everyone else (usually in zone), and force Robert to try to complete passes in tight windows. On one play Atlanta dropped a d-lineman into coverage.

We were also killed by bad drops, but Robert wasn't totally on his game yesterday either.

I think it'll get better before it gets worse.


As for the defense...ugh. It's to the point where I'd have a panic attach if I ever saw us do anything creative on third down...

It'll get better before it gets worse.

..... Like I said, I think the offense will get it together, though. Kyle's still trying to figure out the best way to use the new toy.

Still think it'll get better before the season is done.

I have no such faith about the defense.

Well, FWIW, Kyle's first two years as an OC in Houston, with a far more stable system and better personal; did see the Texans significantly better at 3rd down conversions than his Redskin counterparts. In 2008, the Texans ranked 10th in the league at 42%. (83/ 187.). They dropped off slightly in his second year, 2009, to 40%. (82/ 204- 15th ranked overall.).

I appreciate their trying to fit the scheme around Robert, and learning week-on-week as they go; but he'd better hope it does 'get better before it gets worse'; as, harsh or not, in year three with better personnel added each year, it has no choice but to improve.

The record here to date has been shockingly bad and exceptionally costly.

Completely agree, sadly, on the career average, wholly uninventive, predictable DC. I'm counting down the games to Morris, but that's for another thread.

I agree completely with your OP but we cant blame Kyle for the bad and not give him credit for the good.

Are there times RGIII made that percentage better? Sure, but shouldnt he do the same on 3rd?

That's a fair and pertinent point. I wasn't meaning to put all the success of the big first and second down gains on Robert. Kyle deserves his share of the props in the play calling for that too.

I guess I just ran with RGIII in that post as it's only since his arrival we've started to become more dynamic and a big play threat.

Hail.

[NLC1054]

I think it's more a matter of execution. If Fred, Santana or Pierre catch some of the balls they dropped on Sunday, we're not talking about this a whole lot; Kyle called the right play, Robert made the right read (though maybe, a couple times, not the best throw), but the guy drops the ball.

That's why I say it'll get better before it gets worse.

[LaxinFish29]

Well, FWIW, Kyle's first two years as an OC in Houston, with a far more stable system and better personal; did see the Texans significantly better at 3rd down conversions than his Redskin counterparts. In 2008, the Texans ranked 10th in the league at 42%. (83/ 187.). They dropped off slightly in his second year, 2009, to 40%. (82/ 204- 15th ranked overall.).

I appreciate their trying to fit the scheme around Robert, and learning week-on-week as they go; but he'd better hope it does 'get better before it gets worse'; as, harsh or not, in year three with better personnel added each year, it has no choice but to improve.

The record here to date has been shockingly bad and exceptionally costly.

Completely agree, sadly, on the career average, wholly uninventive, predictable DC. I'm counting down the games to Morris, but that's for another thread.



That's a fair and pertinent point. I wasn't meaning to put all the success of the big first and second down gains on Robert. Kyle deserves his share of the props in the play calling for that too.

I guess I just ran with RGIII in that post as it's only since his arrival we've started to become more dynamic and a big play threat.

Hail.

Thats understandable, with previous QBs we were bad on first second third and fourth down...its hard not to get carried away, I do the same.

---------- Post added October-9th-2012 at 04:49 PM ----------

I think it's more a matter of execution. If Fred, Santana or Pierre catch some of the balls they dropped on Sunday, we're not talking about this a whole lot; Kyle called the right play, Robert made the right read (though maybe, a couple times, not the best throw), but the guy drops the ball.

That's why I say it'll get better before it gets worse.

I tend to agree with this as well, think its a mixture of both. I guess I have mush less faith in the D.

[darrelgreenie]

3rd down efficiency, like you point out, has been low for most of Kyle's tenure.
It should be noted that the 3rd down rate improved from last to middle of the pack last year.

Yesterday, imo was more a case of execution then play calling.

Chris Carter made a throw away statement awhile back that always rung true to me:
'A dropped pass is like half a turnover' and they were part of the 3rd down failing from the Falcons game:

o The 1st 2 series ended in receiver drops, Davis then Moss (although the throw was a lil off target it was very catchable)

o Griff not being in rhythm on 3rd series and 6th series, where to my eye didn't get the ball out on time

o Holding, OL getting pushed back on 3rd short, Polumbus&Chester being beat as they doubled Abraham


But for the season though, I think the low 3rd down conversion rate are a reflection of the extra cautious approach on 3rd and long. As opposed to rookies like Luck and Tannehill that are attacking defenses on 3rd and long, Kyle has been largely making conservative calls.

---------- Post added October-9th-2012 at 05:12 PM ----------

s hard to pinpoint how/why the passing game doesn't convert more 3rd +7s.
And this lack of efficiency isn't new to this year.

Imo part of the problem is style of offense we're playing while highly explosive on 1st down is low efficiency.
Incomplete passes or negative/no gain plays on 1st down puts the offense behind 'schedule' and is more likely to lead to a third and long.

So the first part of the equation like LL said is to decrease the frequency of third and long by being more efficient on 1st down.

Which to me = run more on 1st down but 1st down defenses are often the best chance to create chunk or explosive plays in the passing game.
So there is a trade off more efficieny? Or more chunk yardage?......

But in away the above is besides the point because 3rd and +7 are going to happen they're an unavoidable eventuality.

I think the long term answer is to turn Griffin lose and allow him to attack with the passing game in 3rd and long situations.
Kyle is using Griffin in a very structured and protected but effective offense.
In many 3rd and long situations Kyle doesn't attack the way some other OC's would and Griffin decision making imo reflects that safe mindset.

When/if Kyle begins to transition the passing game to more rhythm spread shotgun passing e.g. (2x2 w/ Posse or 4 wide), Griffin will become more comfortable and find a rhythm in attack defenses that way we'll see the rate of 3rd and long conversions increase.

[skins4eva]

I've made the point extensively in other threads that some of the blame for our exceedingly poor third down conversion rate should fall at the feet of Kyle. There are many members who feel that he really shouldn't be accountable for our horrendous numbers. I guess in my mind I'd be interested in seeing a breakdown of seeing how many third down conversions would have been made but for a player mistake--dropped pass, penalty, etc. One thing I have noted, and it's more observational than anything else and was really glaring vs. Atlanta is that even when we have a short distance on 3rd down--like 3rd and 4 or less, we seem unable to convert consistently or even semi-consistently. The third and long conversions are less troublesome because it's a down and distance that really favors the defense, but on 3rd and short, especially with a mobile QB, we should have the advantage.

The most successful teams in the league routinely pick up large chunks of yardage on 1st down, because second and short is the worst possible down and distance for a defense--an defense must be on its heels. I would think that the best way to fix our third down woes would be consistency on 1st down.

Regardless, I think the poor 3rd down conversion rate is a confluence of many factors: but execution (which falls on the players, assuming they've been put in a position to have a chance to succeed) and playcalling are to me at least the two factors that contribute most heavily to success or failure on 3rd down, or any down for that matter. I'd like us to move a little more up tempo on third down (would love to see RGIII in the no huddle, but I know it's probably too early for that) because it sometimes seems that we move too deliberately on third down and tense up a bit.

---------- Post added October-9th-2012 at 06:02 PM ----------

3rd down efficiency, like you point out, has been low for most of Kyle's tenure.
It should be noted that the 3rd down rate improved from last to middle of the pack last year.

Yesterday, imo was more a case of execution then play calling.

Chris Carter made a throw away statement awhile back that always rung true to me:
'A dropped pass is like half a turnover' and they were part of the 3rd down failing from the Falcons game:

o The 1st 2 series ended in receiver drops, Davis then Moss (although the throw was a lil off target it was very catchable)

o Griff not being in rhythm on 3rd series and 6th series, where to my eye didn't get the ball out on time

o Holding, OL getting pushed back on 3rd short, Polumbus&Chester being beat as they doubled Abraham


But for the season though, I think the low 3rd down conversion rate are a reflection of the extra cautious approach on 3rd and long. As opposed to rookies like Luck and Tannehill that are attacking defenses on 3rd and long, Kyle has been largely making conservative calls.

---------- Post added October-9th-2012 at 05:12 PM ----------



Which to me = run more on 1st down but 1st down defenses are often the best chance to create chunk or explosive plays in the passing game.
So there is a trade off more efficieny? Or more chunk yardage?......

I agree with everything you've said, but I think that getting a defense in 2 down and 5 or less gives generally gives an offense the best chance for an explosive play. 2nd and 1, 2 and 3 are really dangerous downs for a defense because the entire playbook is open.

[NLC1054]

In many 3rd and long situations Kyle doesn't attack the way some other OC's would and Griffin decision making imo reflects that safe mindset.

When it comes to Luck and Tannehill, I don't think it's a matter of not attacking on 3rd and long.

I think that those two teams do a better job of staying out of third and long.

Luck operates that WCO, rhythm, 5-step and the ball is out style of offense, and he completes a lot of high efficiency throws on first and second down along with modest gains in the run game on first and second down. In the games I've gone back and watched with Luck, I don't think he faces a lot of third and longs, and on those down I don't think Arians attacks defenses any better or worse than Kyle.

I think Tannehill is the same way.

I agree with you otherwise; we're typically aggressive on first and second down, and if we don't complete those passes or makes those passes, that leaves us with more 3rd and 7+ situations. I'd actually want to see Robert just drop back from center instead of being in the pistol or the gun so much a little more often than we do, since I feel like it's a tell that either a run or a play action pass is coming when he's under center. I feel like that's what hurts us on the boots and rollouts; seems like teams don't completely commit to it with Robert comes under center.

[skins4eva]

The OP's post is more relevant and well informed than this, but I thought I'd post the link since it's relevant to the discussion:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...ins-a-problem/

[glongest]

it was interesting to hear alot of the radio talking heads talk on Sunday about how the defense played pretty well but when the game was on the line could not make a critical stop. To me alot of that falls on the offense. When you are 1 for 9 on third down conversions, there are no sustainable drives and your defense spends alot of time on the field. That is exactly what happened on Sunday. Compounding that issue, when you have a defense that has depth issues like this defense, they are not going to be up to the task of critical stops at the end of the game when the game is on the line. Unless they solve this 3rd down conversion issue and have some time consuming sustainable drives, the result is going to be the same. As someone else mentioned, that starts with receivers catching the balls that are thrown to them and if they cant then regardless of how big of a free agent contract they signed. sit their ass on the bench until they learn how to make catches in critical situations.