One of the Redskins BIGGEST continued failings, both sides of the ball: 3rd down conversions/ stops.

[wildbill1952]

I'm just spit balling conceptually on 3rd and short.
I wonder what our success rate is on 3rd and short and what we've been doing on those 3rd and shorts?

Based on stats form Football Outsiders: abysmal.

These are some stats I was looking at from FootballOutsiders in anticipation of starting another thread.on the perception of the OL vs. the reality.

•Power Success: Percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown. Also includes runs on first-and-goal or second-and-goal from the two-yard line or closer. This is the only statistic on this page that includes quarterbacks.

Redskins Rank: 27 Raw number:50%

•Stuffed: Percentage of runs where the running back is tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage. Since being stuffed is bad, teams are ranked from stuffed least often (#1) to most often (#32).

Redskins rank: 16 Raw number 18%

With only a "good" OL, two yards on 3rd down or 4th down is almost a given (26 out 32 teams are better than 50% succes rates). The Skins rank 27th of 32 teams in those same situations at exactly 50%. On the "stuffed" stat, the Skins hit the NFL Average right on the nose with roughly 1 out of 5 being the stat for the Skins. With the Skins, again, the lack of an offensive line that, according to the stats is at best average or at worst, abysmal, third down and short for the Skins is not going to be a running play because you can't depend on the OL to open the hole. Make an offense one-sided in any given situation and the defense is going to have the advantage.

[darrelgreenie]

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol2012

With only a "good" OL, two yards on 3rd down or 4th down is almost a given (26 out 32 teams are better than 50% succes rates). The Skins rank 27th of 32 teams in those same situations at exactly 50%. On the "stuffed" stat, the Skins hit the NFL Average right on the nose with roughly 1 out of 5 being the stat for the Skins. With the Skins, again, the lack of an offensive line that, according to the stats is at best average or at worst, abysmal, third down and short for the Skins is not going to be a running play because you can't depend on the OL to open the hole. Make an offense one-sided in any given situation and the defense is going to have the advantage.

I forgot to check FBO. Thanks.

The struggles on 3rd and short are about what I figured. And I hope the offense as a better/different plan on 3rd and short then a power run from a power run formation.

I was pleasantly surprised to see the 'stuffed' mark being right about average, I bet Alfred Morris helps them out with that stat with his ability to stay up and run through initial contact.

I hope you start that other thread, I look forward to reading it.

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

lol, good there must be ying-yang for the convergence of the force.

But I think a good sample size would include teams from the top, middle and basement of 3rd +6 conversion rates.

Like maybe the teams that rank #1, #2, #16, #17, #30, #31?

..... But don't let me ruin a good thread... I'm interested in seeing that sample size getting bigger.

He who asks:

As we currently stand, those positions based on total 3rd down conversion rate are as follows:-

1. Steelers. 5 Games/ 52%.
2. Falcons. 5 Games/ 48%.
16. Packers. 5 Games/ 40%.
17. 49ers. 5 Games/ 40 %.
30. Buccaneers. 4 Games/ 26%.
31. Bengals. 5 Games/ 25%.

With the Redskins 32nd overall at 23% from 5 games.

On the season to date, the 3rd + 6 conversion rate of the above teams are as follows:-

Steelers. 46.8 %. 22/ 47. 1 TD.
49ers. 40. 7%. 11/ 27. 1 TD.
Falcons. 36.7 %. 11/ 30.
Packers. 21.6 %. 8/ 37.
Redskins. 17. 4%. 8/ 46. 1 TD.
Buccaneers. 17. 1%. 6/ 35. 2 TD.
Bengals. 14. 7 %. 5/ 34. 2 TD/ 1 Pass Int. for TD.

I have the individual downs if your interested, though that should suffice. Anything else and you can can research yourself!

Hail.

[darrelgreenie]

Thanks, GHH.

Where did you go to compile the conversion numbers?

Here is an interesting interview from Greg Cosell where he gives his opinion on the 3rd down struggles:

http://www.stationcaster.com/player_...c=426&f=771831
http://www.espn980.com/audiovault/#

[thesubmittedone]

Even in GHH larger sample size Griffin's number of 3rd and long attempts (25) does not represent a larger then normal amount.
Heck, this sample size shows we're in 3rd and long less often then those other teams; we're just remarkably inefficient at converting them.

Here is an interesting interview from Greg Cosell where he gives his opinion on the 3rd down struggles:

http://www.stationcaster.com/player_...c=426&f=771831
http://www.espn980.com/audiovault/#

Am I reading it wrong? I'm seeing that we have 46 3rd and 6+ (not 25) attempts on the season... that's actually a lot. And it's more than the Bucs and Bengals who are almost as bad as us at getting 3rd down conversions.

I don't know, am I missing it?

[darrelgreenie]

Am I reading it wrong? I'm seeing that we have 46 3rd and 6+ (not 25) attempts on the season... that's actually a lot. And it's more than the Bucs and Bengals who are almost as bad as us at getting 3rd down conversions.

I don't know, am I missing it?

No, you're not reading it wrong I was.
But when I compile the numbers from ESPN I got different numbers...shrugs...

You should listen to the Cosell interview, it pretty much sums up what I've been seeing.

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

I used the game books on the official league site.

Hail.

[thesubmittedone]

No, you're not reading it wrong I was.
But when I compile the numbers from ESPN I got different numbers...shrugs...

Ok, lol... I was freaking out.

So, at the very least, I think these stats should ease our concerns a bit. It may not be that we're just awful on 3rd down as much as our 3rd downs are too long too many times. We need to be more consistent on 1st and 2nd down, and we need to stop getting penalties. Still, I really find it hard to talk like this so long as our offense can keep scoring like they've been. I understand the whole ball control issue but as a Skins fan scoring TDs no matter how they come is delicious.

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

Ok, lol... I was freaking out.

So, at the very least, I think these stats should ease our concerns a bit. It may not be that we're just awful on 3rd down as much as our 3rd downs are too long too many times. We need to be more consistent on 1st and 2nd down, and we need to stop getting penalties......

Well, deducting the 6+ yardage, which we'll class as long for the purpose of this, we're 3 of 14 in short to medium 3rd down yardage conversations. 21. 4%.

We pretty much suck on third down whatever the distance.

And using our 7 team comparison above, the other teams are thus on short to medium yardage third downs:

Packers. 17/ 26. 64. 4%.
Steelers. 18/ 30. 60%.
Falcons. 21/ 36. 58. 3%.
49ers. 11/ 26. 42. 3%.
Bengals. 10/ 27. 37%.
Buccaneers. 7/ 26. 26. 9%.

Hail.

[darrelgreenie]

Redskins Total 3rd down Conversions:

60 attempts w/ 14 conversions


3rd and 6+ I got:

41 attempts:

13 rushing attempts (3 yielding 1st downs)
28 pass attempts

The breakdown of those passing attempts:
Griffin 16/25 145 yards 64% 5.80 YPA
Cousin 2/3 84 yards 67% 28 YPA

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

How far into the show dg?

Hail.

[darrelgreenie]

So, at the very least, I think these stats should ease our concerns a bit. It may not be that we're just awful on 3rd down as much as our 3rd downs are too long too many times.

I'm not sure there are concerns to be eased, as much as making observations for improvement. I disagree with the characterization that being in 3rd and long often is the reason the 3rd down conversion rate is low. I would be more apt to agree if we were at or near league average converting 3rd and 6+; but we're not. Ultimately 3rd +6 conversion rate is gonna be a testament to what an offense can do in the passing game.
And the passing attack or lack there of is the main area holding back the 3rd and +6 conversion rate.

We need to be more consistent on 1st and 2nd down, and we need to stop getting penalties. Still, I really find it hard to talk like this so long as our offense can keep scoring like they've been. I understand the whole ball control issue but as a Skins fan scoring TDs no matter how they come is delicious.

Ball control is not an issue for me in this disucssion, that's a whole 'nother ball of wax.

---------- Post added October-13th-2012 at 05:42 PM ----------

How far into the show dg?

Hail.

Not long its the 2nd or 3rd question in the interview.
Here is a direct link to the interview:

http://www.stationcaster.com/player_...c=426&f=771831

---------- Post added October-13th-2012 at 05:44 PM ----------

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

Yup, Campbell more or less rubber stamps what we discussed earlier that we'd be better set up in the spread as we can't power block/ run for ****.

0/ 10 in third and 2, 3 or 4? That's beyond abysmal for a pro football team.

Hail.

[darrelgreenie]

This is a direct link to the Cosell interview:

http://www.stationcaster.com/player_...c=426&f=771831

Yup, Campbell more or less rubber stamps what we discussed earlier that we'd be better set up in the spread as we can't power block/ run for ****.

0/ 10 in third and 2, 3 or 4? That's beyond abysmal for a pro football team.

Hail.

I actually didn't listen to the Campbell interview (but I will now).

in post #76 http://www.extremeskins.com/showthre...=1#post9204525 wildbill pointed this out:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol2012

•Power Success: Percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown. Also includes runs on first-and-goal or second-and-goal from the two-yard line or closer. This is the only statistic on this page that includes quarterbacks.

Redskins Rank: 27 Raw number:50%

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

Ahh, hang on, I was listening to the SR from 11/10.

Figured out Cosell now from last Wednesday. Listening now.

Hail.