Chalk Talk Discussion Topic: What's the issue with our defense?

[Oldfan]

I don't think a single person has said yards per game is a statistic that is really worth anything. I merely talked about how our defense has gotten torched through the air and used yards as an example.

The important statistics for a defense, in my opinion are: Red Zone conversion percentage, third down conversion percentage, turnovers.

What's your opinion on aggressiveness? Mine is that the defense that leads the league in takeaways was probably over-aggressive. Agree or disagree?

[KDawg]

What's your opinion on aggressiveness? Mine is that the defense that leads the league in takeaways was probably over-aggressive. Agree or disagree?

I agree with that for the most part, unless, of course, they're also top notch in the league in yards per attempt, completion, rushing yards per attempt, third down conversion rate, and red zone conversion rate. Oh, and not to mention, at minimum a middle range offense which also excels in third down conversion rate, red zone conversion rate and turnovers (or lack thereof). Which, to my knowledge has not only never happened but has never come close to happening. And even within that setting, it would have to add up to a stellar defense at all times and not just a defense that may allow a few scores but otherwise totally shuts a team down. (I mean, for example, on three drives you allow 240 yards and three touchdowns. But on the rest of the drives you allow 3 total yards. Too inconsistent to be ideal)

I think a more realistic goal is to be a team that sits in the top half of all defensive rankings, with the two needing to be near the league best as red zone and third down conversions. But turnovers are an important statistic.

I just don't think they're a great stand alone stat. In fact, I'm not sure there's such a thing as a great stand alone stat.

[Tulane Skins Fan]

I don't think a single person has said yards per game is a statistic that is really worth anything. I merely talked about how our defense has gotten torched through the air and used yards as an example.

The important statistics for a defense, in my opinion are: Red Zone conversion percentage, third down conversion percentage, turnovers.

I'm not saying we have the best defense in the league or anything, but if they keep generating 2-3 turnovers a game, i think they are probably helping us win a lot of games.

[Oldfan]

I agree with that for the most part, unless, of course, they're also top notch in the league in yards per attempt, completion, rushing yards per attempt, third down conversion rate, and red zone conversion rate. Oh, and not to mention, at minimum a middle range offense which also excels in third down conversion rate, red zone conversion rate and turnovers (or lack thereof). Which, to my knowledge has not only never happened but has never come close to happening. And even within that setting, it would have to add up to a stellar defense at all times and not just a defense that may allow a few scores but otherwise totally shuts a team down. (I mean, for example, on three drives you allow 240 yards and three touchdowns. But on the rest of the drives you allow 3 total yards. Too inconsistent to be ideal)

I think a more realistic goal is to be a team that sits in the top half of all defensive rankings, with the two needing to be near the league best as red zone and third down conversions. But turnovers are an important statistic.

I just don't think they're a great stand alone stat. In fact, I'm not sure there's such a thing as a great stand alone stat.

Good. We're on on the same page.

[Hitman21ST]

What's your opinion on aggressiveness? Mine is that the defense that leads the league in takeaways was probably over-aggressive. Agree or disagree?

I definitely understand your point of view, OF, but a good number of turnovers are more a result of dumb luck than being over-aggressive. All three of the turnovers our defense got yesterday were like that. Lorenzo Alexander was just right place right time on the fumble recovery (unless you want to argue that the blitz he was on would be considered over-aggressive, but I think that's more semantics than anything), Madieu's pick was a bad throw from Ponder, and Hall's pick wasn't a result of aggressiveness. Turnovers are definitely a product of aggressiveness, but there are too many variables to say with certainty that the defense that creates the most turnovers is over-aggressive.

Now, if we're talking philosophy, I prefer an aggressive defense over bend-don't-break. I like attacking the offense and making them make mistakes. That kind of defense will get burned, but it will make plays that will make up for it. I like a defense that dictates how the offense will act, rather than reacting to what the offense does.

[Oldfan]

I definitely understand your point of view, OF, but a good number of turnovers are more a result of dumb luck than being over-aggressive. All three of the turnovers our defense got yesterday were like that. Lorenzo Alexander was just right place right time on the fumble recovery (unless you want to argue that the blitz he was on would be considered over-aggressive, but I think that's more semantics than anything), Madieu's pick was a bad throw from Ponder, and Hall's pick wasn't a result of aggressiveness. Turnovers are definitely a product of aggressiveness, but there are too many variables to say with certainty that the defense that creates the most turnovers is over-aggressive.

Now, if we're talking philosophy, I prefer an aggressive defense over bend-don't-break. I like attacking the offense and making them make mistakes. That kind of defense will get burned, but it will make plays that will make up for it. I like a defense that dictates how the offense will act, rather than reacting to what the offense does.

When a defense leads a 32-team league in takeaways over an entire season, it is not likely due to luck. It is PROBABLY a sign of an overly aggressive unit that took excessive risks. Of course, no one keeps track of the TDs they gave up in paying for that league leading stat.

KDawg's take on it above -- using a combination of stats -- makes sense to me.

[Boss_Hogg]

One thing we cannot overlook with this defense: Turnovers. The Redskins are tied for third in the NFC with 14 takeaways.

The Bears currently lead the NFL with 17 takeaways. - This is primarily a result of Tony Romo's 5 INTs.

[Hitman21ST]

When a defense leads a 32-team league in takeaways over an entire season, it is not likely due to luck. It is PROBABLY a sign of an overly aggressive unit that took excessive risks. Of course, no one keeps track of the TDs they gave up in paying for that league leading stat.

True, I'll give you that.

You can tell though. If I'm understanding you, your premise is that the team that leads the league in turnovers is overly aggressive, and the result of that (aside from turnovers) is that the defense also allows the other team to score (kind of a boom-or-bust defense).

Last year, the Packers and the 49ers tied for the league lead with 38 turnovers. The Packers ranked 19th though in points allowed, with 359. The 49ers ranked 2nd, with 229. The team that allowed the most points (Tampa Bay, 494) was tied for 19th in turnovers with 24. The team with the fewest turnovers (Steelers, 15) also allowed the fewest points (227). I wouldn't exactly say there is a correlation, nor would I say that turnovers are a sure sign of aggressiveness.

[Oldfan]

True, I'll give you that.

You can tell though. If I'm understanding you, your premise is that the team that leads the league in turnovers is overly aggressive, and the result of that (aside from turnovers) is that the defense also allows the other team to score (kind of a boom-or-bust defense).

Last year, the Packers and the 49ers tied for the league lead with 38 turnovers. The Packers ranked 19th though in points allowed, with 359. The 49ers ranked 2nd, with 229. The team that allowed the most points (Tampa Bay, 494) was tied for 19th in turnovers with 24. The team with the fewest turnovers (Steelers, 15) also allowed the fewest points (227). I wouldn't exactly say there is a correlation, nor would I say that turnovers are a sure sign of aggressiveness.

Using the points allowed total doesn't work. What you need is a stat that no one keeps: how many points were given up when an overly aggressive defense was burned?

It's easier to understand what I mean by thinking of CBs. D.Hall led our team in takeaways, but how many times was he burned by offenses who took advantage of his over-aggressiveness? We don't have that stat, but we know instinctively that we can't simply say that he was better than other CBs because he had more takeaways. In the very same way, we can't say a defense was great because it led the league in takeaways. We need to know how often it was burned by being overly aggressive.

[Hitman21ST]

Using the point allowed total doesn't work. What you need is a stat that no one keeps: how many points were given up when an overly aggressive defense was burned?

It's easier to understand what I mean by thinking of CBs. D.Hall led our team in takeaways, but how many times was he burned by offenses who took advantage of his over-aggressiveness? We don't have that stat, but we know instinctively that we can't simply say that he was better than other QBs because he had more takeaways. In the very same way, we can't say a defense was great because it led the league in takeaway. We need to know how often it was burned by being overly aggressive.

OK, we're on the same page now.

To piggyback off of that, it's not just the point total that needs to be kept. I would throw 1st downs in there also (think the 3rd and 20 Cover 0 blitz against Dallas).

But I much prefer an aggressive defense to a bend-don't-break. There's a spot for BDB, but not until late in the game with a lead. Personal experience (both as a fan watching games and as a coach) has shown me that over the course of a season, aggressive defenses pay off more than BDB.

[GhostofAlvinWalton]

I'm not saying we have the best defense in the league or anything, but if they keep generating 2-3 turnovers a game, i think they are probably helping us win a lot of games.

They may be avg 2+ TO per game but they are also avg giving up 28.8 p/g. Even if the Defense scores a TD (or directly add to a TD) with one of the TOs the Offense still has to score 3 TDs just to get even with the points the Defense is giving up. And I doubt many teams (see: any) are scoring TDs on 50% of their TOs. That's not really helping to win games, imo.

[Oldfan]

OK, we're on the same page now.

To piggyback off of that, it's not just the point total that needs to be kept. I would throw 1st downs in there also (think the 3rd and 20 Cover 0 blitz against Dallas).

But I much prefer an aggressive defense to a bend-don't-break. There's a spot for BDB, but not until late in the game with a lead. Personal experience (both as a fan watching games and as a coach) has shown me that over the course of a season, aggressive defenses pay off more than BDB.

Bend but don't break allows the opponent's offense to play ball control. So, I ask: When do I not care if the opponent plays ball control to milk the clock? Answer: when I have a two-score lead and the clock is my friend.

[Hitman21ST]

Bend but don't break allows the opponent's offense to play ball control. So, I ask: When do I not care if the opponent plays ball control to milk the clock? Answer: when I have a two-score lead and the clock is my friend.

I was going to say that exact same thing (relating it to the offensive thread you started).

[GhostofAlvinWalton]

Bend but don't break allows the opponent's offense to play ball control. So, I ask: When do I not care if the opponent plays ball control to milk the clock? Answer: when I have a two-score lead and the clock is my friend.

What is your ideal defensive philosophy for a team:

1. To start the game "generally" (Does the opponent matter)?

2. Once you see how/what the other team is doing/can-can't do/etc?

3. Late in the game - behind by 1-8 points, behind by 8+ points, ahead by 1-8 points? (we know from above what the answer is with a 2 score lead)

[Hitman21ST]

What is your ideal defensive philosophy for a team:

1. To start the game "generally" (Does the opponent matter)?

2. Once you see how/what the other team is doing/can-can't do/etc?

3. Late in the game - behind by 1-8 points, behind by 8+ points, ahead by 1-8 points? (we know from above what the answer is with a 2 score lead)

1. Come out guns blazing. Take shots early, get the other team on their heels.
2. Make the adjustments necessary, but keep on shooting.
3. a) Run my normal offense, normal game (maybe go no-huddle)
b) No huddle, go big or go home.
c) Normal offense, only no shots downfield unless it's WIDE open. Grind the clock.