ESPN: QBR or RG3?

[DieHardSkinFan05]

Stop the engraver. Hold up on the parade. Tell the sculptor to take a coffee break.

Before the whole world gives Washington Redskins QB Robert Griffin III the NFL Rookie of the Year, and the MVP award, and maybe the election, let's all just wake up and smell the sanity.

Yes, he's electric. Yes, Bob has been unBoblievable. Yes, he's cuddly and handsome and the son every mother wants.

There's only one problem: He's not even the best rookie QB in the league.

The two-word rebuttal:

Andrew Luck.

You don't know this because RG3 works in Washington, D.C., the media magnet where people like my friend Michael Wilbon work and watch every Redskins game and then get lightheaded and say things like what he said on radio this week, which was "RG3 is the best player in the whole league."

Whoa. We've GOT to get you DIRECTV, Mike.

Andrew Luck, left, posted a QBR of 68.2 compared to Aaron Rodgers' 54.7 QBR in the Colts 30-27 victory over the Packers in September.
If you had it, you'd know that Luck has been just a tablespoon better than RG3. He's thrown consistently deeper than RG3. He's been more clutch and less mistake-prone. He's scrambled better than RG3 and has run just fine. He's practically been RG4.

What is it, Mike, RG3's cute sock collection?

"It's like they're not watching Andrew Luck," says a man who analyzes quarterbacks for a living, Jeff Bennett, the curator of the most comprehensive QB stat ever invented, ESPN's QBR (total quarterback rating). "One is being called a savior. But the other is just as successful and no one seems to notice."

If you want a stat that considers everything a QB does, and when he does it, and what was at stake when he did it, then Bennett's QBR stat is for you. Going into Week 8, it had the Mannings at 1 and 2 (Peyton, then Eli), with Tom Brady third. Sound about right? In the QBR rankings, Luck is sixth and Griffin eighth.

But it tells you more than that. For instance, it tells you:

Luck runs more successfully than Griffin. He's had 10 scrambles for first downs. Griffin has had nine.
Luck is asked to do more than Griffin and is doing it. His average pass completion travels 8.6 yards in the air, highest in the NFL. Griffin's is 5.8, one of the lowest.
Luck is more valuable to his team than Griffin. Sixty-nine percent of the Colts' passing yards are gained while the ball is in the air, the rest after the catch. Only 49 percent of the Skins' passing yards come through the air. In other words, Griffin still has his training wheels on. Luck has his license.
What is it, Mike, all of RG3's Subway ads?

Wait! I'm clairvoyant! I know exactly what you're going to say next!

Reilly, you single-celled organism. Griffin leads the NFL in completion percentage! He's third in the league in passer rating! Luck is second to last!

Oh, you mean NFL passer rating, the most useless stat in football? The 41-year-old fossil that was invented, literally, on a slide rule? The one that doesn't even consider running or fumbles or time of game or score? Yeah, I know that stat. That stat is the whole problem.

RG3 kills in that stat because he's nibbled his way to a league-leading 70.4 percent completion rating. Given the way the Redskins have babied him, Katy Perry in heels could throw for 60 percent. More than 20 percent of RG3's passes this season haven't even traveled across the line of scrimmage. Only 6 percent of Luck's haven't. If you do a cannonball and I do a triple backflip with a McTwist and we both get straight 9s, whose dive was better?


Robert Griffin III has seven fumbles this year. Five happened when he was rushing.
I don't blame the Skins for babying Griffin. Why wouldn't they? He's America's baby. Mike Shanahan (283 games as a head coach in the NFL) has a good enough team to do that. It beat the New York Giants twice last year.

But under Bruce Arians (three games as a head coach in the NFL), Luck inherited a team that would pass nicely for a Salvation Army drop off box. The Colts have Luck and Reggie Wayne and just about nobody else. Their running backs couldn't get through a wall of Gillette Foamy. And they've already won more games this year (three) than last year (two).

What is it, Mike, RG3's fabulous hair?

If people would just look at these two guys, they'd see Luck has been even more heroic than Mr. Superhero Action Figure Guy.

Luck beat the Green Bay Packers with a TD pass with 35 seconds left. The Green. Bay. Packers. He beat the Vikings after getting the ball on his own 20 with 30 seconds left and drove downfield for the winning field goal. Against the Jags, he pulled off a miraculous game-winning march in the last minute, only to watch the Jags complete an 80-yard stunner at the end.

Don't get me wrong. If you made me choose, I'd rather watch RG3. He swerves and curves as though his hips were removed at birth. But he doesn't seem to care much about the football when he's doing it. He's fumbled five times on runs already this season, and two of them potentially cost the Redskins games. Give me Luck, who hasn't fumbled on a run once.

Look, I love both these guys. Both have been twice as good as advertised, great leaders, and kick-the-dirt humble.

But only one of them is getting any attention.

And that socks.

http://espn.go.com/espn/story/_/id/8...rt-griffin-iii

After taking a listen to what a lot of colts fan have to say on the matter of who's been better through the first half of the season, no surprise they would say Luck and we would say RG3. One of their big arguments by Colts and non Colts fans have been that Luck is being asked to do way more than RG3. ESPN's new QBR rating scale shows Luck is more "efficient" in his overall play. Throws for more yards, has a higher YDS Avg, ect. Rick Reilly just posted this article on ESPN explaining this theory..... I tend to disagree. Both QB's i believe have great futures ahead of them, but i still think there's plenty of folks in the media that rather see the traditional QB succeed rather than NO. 10.

[terpskins10]

I hate the argument that RG3 doesn't throw deep or that his offense relies on YAC.

If you ACTUALLY understand football, you know that RG3 is taking what the defense gives him, checking down when necessary and overall being more efficient. What's more is that YAC can be just as much a function of a QB's accuracy as it is the ability of a WR to make plays after the catch.

It's impossible to evaluate using metrics and numbers because football, and the QB position especially, relies on precision to a point where it's difficult to compare two guys on different teams. What I do know, however, is that Griffin is doing everything asked of him, stepping up in the biggest situations and ELEVATING his play when the game is on the line, runs the offense with scary efficiency, and he also hasn't played a bad game yet, unless you count the one where he's been knocked out. Luck has looked terrible in at least two games this season. . If that means he has training wheels on, I don't care. He's playing better within his scheme than Luck is and THAT'S why people are talking about him.

[MrSilverMaC]

He gives luck credit for almost beating the jags but none to Griffin for almost beating the reigning sb champs? He talks about griffins fumbles but doesn't mention luck's 4 more int's? And i don't care how you slice it, one of these two has the highest completion percentage in the league and the other is .4% ahead of mark sanchez, good for second to last in the nfl.


This write-up is a joke that isn't even funny.

[brandymac27]

We can debate w/ people day and night about which of the 2 QB's are better. IMO, RG3 is doing a fantastic job with this team (and the cards he's been dealt- injuries, poor defensive play, etc). He's doing everything he can to lead OUR team, be a class act, and win games. That's above and beyond what I ever expected he could do in his rookie year. He has absolutely lived up to, and surpassed, the hype. With RG3, the proof is in the pudding. To me, that's all that matters. So yeah, I'm gonna go ahead and say RG3 is better than Luck now, and he'll be better than Luck and every other QB in the very near future.

[Jumbo]

OP, please read rule 10 carefully and edit your post accordingly.

[Mr. Sinister]

Wait, people actually take this "ESPN QBR!" crap seriously? Didn't Tebow have a great QBR last year?

Anyways, the fact that people are now using dink and dunk/YAC to downplay Griffin's success should probably take a look around the league. A lot of QB's in those pass heavy offenses do that. How is it all of a sudden a negative when Griffin does it? The guy just sounds annoyed that RG3 is getting so much attention. He should probably take that up with the company he works for.

[FSUSkins24]

Wow! That's really all I can say after reading this article. I'm disappointed I clicked on it, because I'm sure that's all Mr. Reilly was hoping for.

People get paid to write stuff like this. Can't... seem... to wrap my brain around that.

I mean, sure, if you wanna play devil's advocate and be "edgy" just say so. However, it wasn't announced in the piece, so all I can do going forward is assume Rick Reilly A) is a very effective troll B) doesn't watch Redskins games or C) doesn't know much about the QB position.

The tone of this article alone was enough to piss me off. "Is it his awesome hair? Is it his subway commercials, Mike?" Please, just stop talking

[MartinC]

These RGIII versus Luck arguments are getting boring - but I guess I will have to get used to it since we are going to hear them for the next decade just like the Peyton/Brady debates. Actually I guess having a QB who features in a debate about who is the best QB in the NFL will be a nice change of pace .....

[RansomthePasserby]

These RGIII versus Luck arguments are getting boring - but I guess I will have to get used to it since we are going to hear them for the next decade just like the Peyton/Brady debates. Actually I guess having a QB who features in a debate about who is the best QB in the NFL will be a nice change of pace .....

#franchisequarterbackproblems

Seriously though, what a completely one sided, ridiculous article.

[SkinsFTW]

Nobody remembers that Hakeem Olajuwon was drafted before Michael Jordan either. Should Redskins fans care?

[Hiro]

So he gives Luck credit for 'miraculously' bringing the Colts back against the ****ing Jaguars, only to have that victory snatched away, yet makes no mention of the exact same thing happening with Robert against the Super Bowl champions?

Spare me. This guy either oozes haterate, or is just playing the contrarian for hits and reads on his little article.

[MR2Drift]

That article is such a goddamn joke that I wanted to smack Reilly across the screen. It's nice that he forgets that a "babied" RG3 has helped increase our avg. pts this year from 18 to 29 while the Colts went from 15 to 20. What team is scoring more with less offensive talent than us? Our red zone efficiency went from 41% to 59%, while almighty Luck has increased theirs from 42% to 45%. But Luck has an extra first down and fumbles less, never mind that Griffin has 3 more running TDs and the fact that defense have to use a spy on him , something the QBR doesn't account for. It's fine to downgrade Rg3 for his fumbles as a runner, but when you don't do the same for Lucks interceptions as a passer it is a joke.

[s0crates]

I'm not sure I'm buying this QBR thing.

How much does this QBR weigh rushing stats? (I'm guessing not much).

Griffin III: 64 attempts for 468 yards and 6 TDs.
Luck: 20 attempts for 115 yards and 3 TDs.

How does this QBR weigh turnovers? (I'm curious).

Griffin: 2 lost fumbles and 3 interceptions. 5 total.
Luck: 3 lost fumbles and 7 interceptions. 10 total.

How does it determine accuracy if not by completion percentage? (I mean this must be relevant right).

Griffin: 70%
Luck: 54%

Is yards per attempt considered?

Griffin: 8.5 (189 for 1601 yards).
Luck: 6.7 (250 for 1674 yards).

I'm sorry but I'm having trouble seeing how you can possibly argue Luck is better than RG3 this season. The passing yards and scores are about the same, only RG3 has had 60 less passing attempts. In every other conceivable category (turnovers, rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, rushing average, completion percentage, yards per attempt), RG3 is better than Luck. Apparently, the only stat that Luck is better than Griffin in is this mysterious QBR. I would love to know how this QBR is calculated, because it seems to me that it would take a substantial manipulation of the data to make Luck come out better than RG3.

[s0crates]

edit: double post.

[Dirt]

RG3's offense is 7th in the league in YAC. Luck's Colts are 29th.

"yea that's just because they baby him and he throws wussy passes behind the line of scrimmage"

Well hell, the Cleveland Browns are FIRST in the NFL in YAC. But their offense overall is 27th. Luck's Colts are 15th. RG3's is 5th.

Both teams have 3 wins. This means the Redskins are producing a better offense, and also doing it safer. Sure the ball travels faster in the air. That's important in basketball, but in the NFL, it's about the play.

You could argue it's just as un-safe with RG3's fumbles. Well, he's also made outstanding game-winning plays and nearly unstoppable 10yd touchdown runs in the red zone. So you let him run. But I thought this was about passing. So Luck's thrown 7 picks to Griffin's 3.

For real, that article was pretty snoody and hateful. Hey guy, nobody's bashing Andrew Luck you don't have to get all mad and try desperately to point out why Luck is better. I suppose we should be ready for RG3 haterz.