Why is the left so confident? Isn't the polling pretty split?
the main talking point in-denial conservatives are clinging to is the "pollsters are using 2008 turnout model" argument, which is bunk. only Rasmussen re-weights their polls by political affiliation. others weight it by demographics. let me explain it this way: if you poll 100 people, and happen to reach 60 men and only 40 women, most pollsters will weight the women more because they know on election day more than 40% of the voters will be women.
pollsters (except rasmussen) do not re-weight their poll results on stated party affiliation of the respondents, because then what would be the point of polling, if you already "know" how many democrats versus republicans are going to turn out? the truth is party ID is a fluid thing, and people change what they self-identify as between their party and "independent" a lot, based on how their party brand is doing in a particular cycle. the reason pollsters are "reaching" fewer republicans than democrats in these polls (and incidentally why it might seem like "independents" are breaking for the GOP) is because there is significant damage right now to the GOP brand. a lot of republicans-at-heart will describe themselves as "independent" on the phone right now. this has two upshots: lower self-identified republicans in the poll, and more independents who lean right in the polls.
this brand damage also manifests itself in other ways. you see a lot of conservatives describing themselves as things other than republican: tea party, etc, but they are still conservatives. you also see things like the Constitution Party get on ballots more often, and Libertarian candidates get some traction. The Democrats suffered from a similar problem in 2000 and 2004. a lot of liberals were wary of self-identifying as Democrats (even though they were still liberals, and still primarily voted for Democrats) and Nader / Green Party found their way into the mix.
anyway, the bottom line is Obama is the clear favorite from a statistical standpoint because he is leading (granted not by a lot) in the overwhelming majority of the polls of a set of swing states he needs to win (and has several buffer states in which he is also ahead), and there's nothing tangible to suggest that there are obvious flaws with the polls, amongst which there is a reasonable consensus that obama is ahead where it counts. On the other hand, for Romney to win, there must be something seriously wrong with the vast majority of the polling.
Last edited by greenspandan; November-5th-2012 at 04:50 PM.
i know this is supposed to be a non-confrontational thread, but i can't resist. Forgive me:
In order for a supporter to be optimistic about Romney's chances, he must deny the consensus of recent science done on the subject, which should at least be a familiar position for a Republican.
I still hope we'll all remain united around the Redskins. From some posts this wknd, I question our resolve. But, as I've told twa, I may hate your politics, but as an ES, I'll still punch somebody out for ya.
We're ExtremeSkins for a reason!
“These are the ideas that people come to America to get away from.”Rubio
How should society view a cure for a ailment of limited duration that takes another's life to 'cure'?
It is useless for the sheep to pass resolutions in favor of vegetarianism while the wolf remains of a different opinion. ...Dean Inge
OK looks close but I think Romney will pull it out. Of the toss-ups he'll win Colorado, Florida, North Carolina and Virginia by 5-6 points. He'll win New Hamphsire and Iowa by 3-4 points, he'll win Ohio by 2-3 points, Wisconsin by 1-2 points, and Pennsylvania by a point or less. Big surprise Michigan will be a squeaker and fall into Mitts column.
Damn, please give me some of what you're drinking.....must be some good stuff....lol
I think Obama squeaks a win in NC, and wins Ohio, Colorado, and NH too. I'm definitely giving FL and PA to Romney, not sure about Michigan or Virginia.
Last edited by brandymac27; November-5th-2012 at 05:38 PM.
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