Great thread by the way... really enjoying the different viewpoints.
The three year thing is tricky. I construe it as a guy that can be reasonbly considered to continue playing at his current (average or better) level. Some in the thread seem to take it as guy that we're not going to replace in three years. Almost everyone on this team is replaceable, but some badly need to be replaced and some are more luxury replacements.
Other guys that I'd call average or better (and thereby making the cut) at their positions in these schemes: Bowen, Riley, Cofield, Carriker, Lichtensteiger. Bowen was quite good for us last year and he started off strong this year (don't know if this has changed). Riley has some concerns, but his tackles last year and this year seem to support mediocrity or better. Cofield and Carriker both had good years last year. Carriker is aided by the fact that the pass rush has been pretty bad. Have to wonder how much of that is his absence. Cofield's unimpressive play likely stems from the loss of Orakpo and Carriker. Lichtensteiger seems to be playing some good ball, I could be wrong because of the difference Griffin has made, but I'm pretty sure average is reasonable. Game breakdowns seem to affirm his good play.
Montgomery, Wilson(cb) and Chester are all slightly longer shots. Wilson, obviously, is struggling. How much of that is due to a decrepit pass rush and the pressure to not get beat deep (as in compensating for poor safety play)? Last year was a good year for him, so I'm tempted to give him a probationary stay on the list until the above problems are addressed. Monty and Chester are much harder for me to judge, but with the offensive success we've had, I'm tempted to think they're likely average... possibly slightly above?
I wonder how many of the defensive guys are hurt by the poor secondary (safety?) play. Virtually take away coverage sacks and factor in an offense's ability to use extra blockers and still excel passing, and your front 7 are in a bad position. I think the competent run defense supports this. Of course our safeties seem to be better at playing the run vs playing pass...
I know this sounds like rampant homerism/optimism, but let me be clear... I tend to think core players should be better than average, or at least average with additional potential. However, the above is based on average players (with scheme taken into account).
Last edited by skinny21; November-1st-2012 at 12:41 AM.
Id put lichtensteiger on the list of core players. He is still young and has at least 3-4 productive years ahead of him.
Originally Posted by RandyHolt
...The OL is an interesting discussion. We have good stats but watch III in the pocket, its a jail break. ...
I am glad that Chester and Will are so highly rated. Maybe RG3 is helping pad their stats, but they arent taking penalties which I suspect must help their ratings. It seemed most wanted an upgrade for Chester, and Monty, I will give you. Is Shanny projecting LeRib to be core?
As oldfan said, they need to be coached up more before they can be considered core. The ones coached up already get blown up, beaten in blitzes - find an RG3 hit comp - something isn't quite right for a high rated offense. The kick blocks.
RG3 is young and can take hits but its not a long term recipe for success. Giving up picks for RG3 makes it harder for him to build his core. It makes him have to hit on Morris like picks to make his 5 year plan stick. Losing cap money is a factor, obviously, but pressures him to not fumble picks even more.
Last edited by RandyHolt; November-1st-2012 at 05:11 AM.
There are gonna be mistakes made and lessons learned along the way.
Some of the mistakes appeared unneccesary and quite ,frankly, obvious but nonetheless i believe we're moving in the right direction.
I wish that Bruce Allen was more then a GM in title only.
Imo the HC as GM dynamic is a schizophrenic meld; a coach will always want to win and a GM should always have a long term view.
Imo some of the mistakes over their tenure are due to Mike the HC being at cross purposes with Mike the GM.
I've always felt that on offense Mike Shanahan's weaknesses as a GM are mitigated/masked by his ability to coach.
Last edited by darrelgreenie; November-1st-2012 at 05:05 AM.
We've got the QB now and I think Shanny has been biding his time until he found the QB he wanted. I'm fairly happy with what he's done so far. More youth, less high priced over the hill drama causing FA's. McNabb was semi understandable at the time, that's no doubt the biggest flaw.
This offseason coming up is probably the most important. With RG3 in the fold and the ****tiest defense ever, they've got a lot of work to do. It'll be interesting to see how they approach it with the cap hit and the lack of a first round pick.
OP mentions core players.....is that the same thing as impact playmakers? What I find frustrating as a fan is when a team like Indy goes 2-14 last season.....blows up their team, hires new coaches and GM, rookie QB.....and lo and behold they are doing better (at this point) than our team who supposedly had a nice youth movement to combine with established veterans.....medidiots thought the Redskins would do better - record wise - than the Colts due to that facts this season. Not the case so far.
There are a lot of nagging issues about this team this season that cause me to wonder about the true talent level on this roster....especially on D. Who do we have on D that is playing at the impact playmaker level this season? Heck, who is playing at a decent level....especially in the secondary? I think some of the issue is not only talent level of the players.....but also the skill (or lack therein) of some members of our coaching staff.
Look....between loss of draft picks for our rookie stud QB....and the Mara cap hit nonsense......how much can we realistically expect our talent level to improve in the off season?
If I critiqued Shanny it would be IMO he's delusional and remains so about the talent on defense -- said this week it would be top 10 maybe even top 5 without the injuries -- I think that's absurd. Granted they were better last year. But to go back to a baseball analogy our secondary IMO is like having a full relief staff with no closer and mediocre relievers -- at key moments in the game its going to be exposed and exposed and exposed. And while I like Orkapo and Kerrigan (don't love them but like them) we also need some interior pressure. One person responded to this point by saying its not about interior pressure on the D line in a 3-4 -- but that's not true -- yes the prime duty is to occupy blockers, but you want pressure in key passing downs too, hence that's why guys like J. Smith, JJ. Watt are talked about so much.
I'd go higher if he's an elite QB like we likely got. But agree 10% is healthy, means he's worth better than double any player on the team.
Edit: Recalling Shanny himself quantified not by number but what positions he thinks are most critical -- I've heard him say it QB, pass rush, and O line he deems most important. If so, he's doing decently. But not as much with pass rush, considering he believes its important i'd expect a concentration on it in the off season. I know he considers a shut down corner important because he talked about it in context of the Bailey/Portis trade. So hopefully those are his areas of off season focus.
Last edited by Skinsinparadise; November-1st-2012 at 06:57 AM.
In the American system, a foot equals 12 inches. It always equals 12 inches. It's a standard. The system would become useless if we decided that a foot should equal 10 inches one time, then 11 another.
In this grading system, I am the reluctant keeper of the standard for realism in the OP list. I would rather not be involved but I can't figure out a way to get out of the job.
This is like an arbitration process. I'm hearing arguments from the pessimistic group on one side, those who would have a very short list, and the much larger homer group on the other, those who, as a consequence of seeing our roster through burgundy glasses, would have a much longer list.
You can look at our first list of core players from November, 2010 and see, with benefit of hindsight, that Alexander and Armstrong didn't belong. I reluctantly added them when they got a lot of support. A bunch of posters wanted Brandon Banks on the list.
I'd rather not, but I can't help injecting my personal opinion into the process. Take Lichtenstieger, for example. He's a good run blocker, but he's weak in pass protection. That fact has been masked by Mike Shanahan using RG3 the way he used Jay Cutler in 2008. His offense led the NFL with only 11 sacks that season. Rookie LT Ryan Clady gave up only 1.5. The following year, with McDaniel and Orton, Clady gave up 8.5.
Mike's scheme and RG3 are making our entire O-line look better than they really are -- including Trent Williams. Randy Holt is right. In pass protection, this line is weak. So, I won't add Kory or Chester to our list of core players in the OP. I don't think they are proven average NFL O-linemen.
Remember, whether you agree or disagree with my approach, the thing that matters is that I try to keep the same standard each time we do this.
---------- Post added November-1st-2012 at 09:30 AM ----------
If you can come up with a way to evaluate positions, I'll add it to the grading.IMO having a strong safety and a decent but not elite TE as part of a core number of players doesn't scream a team on the right track. Having a QB, pass rushers, decent O line does -- see NY Giants.
Agreed. The injuries have hurt no doubt but the unit is not that talented.If I critiqued Shanny it would be IMO he's delusional and remains so about the talent on defense -- said this week it would be top 10 maybe even top 5 without the injuries -- I think that's absurd.
That 10% was an average. When the QB is used as a runner, and when he is asked to throw on the move, that number goes a little higher than average. The position value and the QB's grade are two different numbers.I'd go higher if he's an elite QB like we likely got. But agree 10% is healthy, means he's worth better than double any player on the team.
Last edited by Oldfan; November-1st-2012 at 09:06 AM.
With Davis, hope for the best, but definitely prepare for the worst. ACL tears are one thing. Just ask Adrian Peterson, and for all the talk about losing Carriker, Jenkins is playing at about the same level coming off an ACL injury .Suggs *might* be a success story, but his tear was only partial, and we don't know if he's actually going to be the same, though he did have a sack in his first game back. Achilles tears are what ACL tears were 10 years ago right now.Furthermore, in the reviewed 21 NFL skill players who returned to play, there were significant decreases in games played per season (11.67 games per year pre-injury versus 6.17 games per year postinjury) when averaged over the three seasons before the injury and the three seasons after the injury.3 There were also decreases averaging nearly 50% in power ratings of the returning players for the three seasons after the injury compared to the three seasons before the injury. These data indicate that even in players able to return to their former level of play, the quality of play may suffer permanently.
Last edited by The Robert Griffin Experience; November-1st-2012 at 09:09 AM.
Orakpo isn't that old, can can very realistically recover from this, especially since it happened so early in the season.
As far as Garcon goes, if surgery fixes the pain and repairs the torn ligament... it's not unrealistic to think he can fully recover. He's not that old.
Last edited by cphil006; November-1st-2012 at 09:59 AM.
Being a Redskins fan prepares you for life.
Vinny Cerrato believes he gave Jim Zorn a roster that can make the playoffs. A playoff kicker doesn't miss that kick. A playoff safety doesn't bite multiple times by a double move in the same game.Originally Posted by suze109
I don't think the strength of the roster is necessarily based on individuals. The O-line is playing well as a unit with one star and some janitorial help. The roster has good intangible/ depth guys like Niles Paul and Lo Alexander. Conversely, the front 7, which supposedly has good building blocks, has been MIA.
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