Realistically, how is Mike doing on building the roster?

[Rufus T Firefly]

I agree that switching the defense slowed things.

Is there anyone from that defense who was let go due to the switch who would still be a contributor now?

[skinny21]

Younger, that's for sure. Younger and much better? That's not so sure.

Younger doesn't equate to better, but due to the three year requirement you're more likely to find core players with more youth, no?

Great thread by the way... really enjoying the different viewpoints.

The three year thing is tricky. I construe it as a guy that can be reasonbly considered to continue playing at his current (average or better) level. Some in the thread seem to take it as guy that we're not going to replace in three years. Almost everyone on this team is replaceable, but some badly need to be replaced and some are more luxury replacements.

Carricker, Cofield and Young had only one vote each before yours. Bowen and Riley were bubble players with more support. My objective here is to create a realistic list, not to make the list as long as possible.

I agree with Young making the list. A third wr or maybe even a 2nd te I probably wouldn't count as starters (Hernandez in NE maybe?), but the starting fullback...?

Other guys that I'd call average or better (and thereby making the cut) at their positions in these schemes: Bowen, Riley, Cofield, Carriker, Lichtensteiger. Bowen was quite good for us last year and he started off strong this year (don't know if this has changed). Riley has some concerns, but his tackles last year and this year seem to support mediocrity or better. Cofield and Carriker both had good years last year. Carriker is aided by the fact that the pass rush has been pretty bad. Have to wonder how much of that is his absence. Cofield's unimpressive play likely stems from the loss of Orakpo and Carriker. Lichtensteiger seems to be playing some good ball, I could be wrong because of the difference Griffin has made, but I'm pretty sure average is reasonable. Game breakdowns seem to affirm his good play.

Montgomery, Wilson(cb) and Chester are all slightly longer shots. Wilson, obviously, is struggling. How much of that is due to a decrepit pass rush and the pressure to not get beat deep (as in compensating for poor safety play)? Last year was a good year for him, so I'm tempted to give him a probationary stay on the list until the above problems are addressed. Monty and Chester are much harder for me to judge, but with the offensive success we've had, I'm tempted to think they're likely average... possibly slightly above?

I wonder how many of the defensive guys are hurt by the poor secondary (safety?) play. Virtually take away coverage sacks and factor in an offense's ability to use extra blockers and still excel passing, and your front 7 are in a bad position. I think the competent run defense supports this. Of course our safeties seem to be better at playing the run vs playing pass...



I know this sounds like rampant homerism/optimism, but let me be clear... I tend to think core players should be better than average, or at least average with additional potential. However, the above is based on average players (with scheme taken into account).

This analysis needs to consider that the qualifications for being a "core" player degrade quickly over time. If Cooley, Armstrong (?), Hall, Orakpo, Landry were considered core players in 2009, is it Shanahan's failure that they are not core players now? Players get injured, old, etc. Oldfan should at least acknowledge that Zorn left an aging team

My point is considering that the Redskins lose core players (like Fletcher) who are still on the team, but are getting old or injured -- that has to be taken into consideration. Frankly, if Shanahan was doing a bad job, we'd have even fewer core players than we did in 2009. We don't -- we have more core players, and possibly a lot of potential core players waiting to emerge. What's the the time-frame that we decide Hankerson is a bust? Davis? Helu, Gettis?

Shanahanhas had to replace old 2009 core or 'near-core' players with new talent. Think of the changes: Portis with Morris, Kelly/Armstrong/Randle El with Hankerson/Morgan/Garcon, Haynesworth with Cofield, McIntosh with Riley, Campbell/Grossman with Griffin, Thomas with Chester, Rogers with Wilson, Rabach with Montgomery, At the same time he's added players like Williams, Lichtensteiger, Young, Carriker, and Bowen -- who are serviceable replacements to that old group of Levi Jones/Stephone Heyer, Dockery, Mike Sellers, the aging combo of Philip Daniels & Renaldo Wynn, Cornelius Griffin, etc.

Shanahan has brought in replacements (and players behind them to compete for those position) that have a chance of staying here more than three years -- so the team is younger.

The next question is .. are the replacements also worthy of being deemed as "average talent" (and by extension 'core'). Frankly, that is simply a judgement call,based on 2012 perceptions, and maybe more time is needed. Maybe Bernstine turns into a decent safety. Maybe Tanard stays clean in the future. Maybe Merriweather gets healthy and is a fit in this system. Hankerson hasn't even hit year 3 as a WR.

Excellent post. I fully agree with OF's decision to leave off 'potential' core players, but I am excited to see the amount of potential this team has. 5 players just in the secondary, four of which are not playing (Crawford being the 5th), all with some positive reviews. Several on oline too.

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

Everyone thinks mine's awesome.

Jumbo by name, Jumbo by ..... on second thoughts, I don't wanna' know!

Hail.

[illone]

Id put lichtensteiger on the list of core players. He is still young and has at least 3-4 productive years ahead of him.

[MustangSteve]

Originally Posted by RandyHolt
...The OL is an interesting discussion. We have good stats but watch III in the pocket, its a jail break. ...

Agreed. Mike has to keep his QB on the move to hold down the sacks. That limits the offense.

---------- Post added October-31st-2012 at 09:46 PM ----------



Wow! You are relaxing the standards for qualification as a "core player."

I defined core players as: starters on the offense or defense with at least average ability (proven not potential), who can be expected to be here, under contract, in three years.

Not complaining -- just observing.

That's because of the defenses we have faced so far this season, some have been elite, not just your average, with more elite on the way, Others have been almost twice as good as they were last year, besides the Saints. Although RG has been forced out of the pocket, this O-line has done a very good job protecting him against some of the NFL's best. I think they are light years ahead of where they started when Shanny took over.

[RandyHolt]

Trent Williams, Chris Chester and Will Montgomery are all rated very highly according to Pro Football Focus. The only lineman who's in negatives right now, I think, is Tyler Polumbus.

This is not true.

They are not passing the eye test to me, when RG3 passes from the pocket. He does so, so rarely, yet it seems more often than not, he has a shoulder in his gut right after passing. Maybe it sticks out to me, because I never see our defense do the same despite numerous more chances at a flat footed QB.

I am glad that Chester and Will are so highly rated. Maybe RG3 is helping pad their stats, but they arent taking penalties which I suspect must help their ratings. It seemed most wanted an upgrade for Chester, and Monty, I will give you. Is Shanny projecting LeRib to be core?

As oldfan said, they need to be coached up more before they can be considered core. The ones coached up already get blown up, beaten in blitzes - find an RG3 hit comp - something isn't quite right for a high rated offense. The kick blocks.

RG3 is young and can take hits but its not a long term recipe for success. Giving up picks for RG3 makes it harder for him to build his core. It makes him have to hit on Morris like picks to make his 5 year plan stick. Losing cap money is a factor, obviously, but pressures him to not fumble picks even more.

[darrelgreenie]

There are gonna be mistakes made and lessons learned along the way.
Some of the mistakes appeared unneccesary and quite ,frankly, obvious but nonetheless i believe we're moving in the right direction.
I wish that Bruce Allen was more then a GM in title only.
Imo the HC as GM dynamic is a schizophrenic meld; a coach will always want to win and a GM should always have a long term view.
Imo some of the mistakes over their tenure are due to Mike the HC being at cross purposes with Mike the GM.
I've always felt that on offense Mike Shanahan's weaknesses as a GM are mitigated/masked by his ability to coach.

[Spaceman Spiff]

We've got the QB now and I think Shanny has been biding his time until he found the QB he wanted. I'm fairly happy with what he's done so far. More youth, less high priced over the hill drama causing FA's. McNabb was semi understandable at the time, that's no doubt the biggest flaw.

This offseason coming up is probably the most important. With RG3 in the fold and the ****tiest defense ever, they've got a lot of work to do. It'll be interesting to see how they approach it with the cap hit and the lack of a first round pick.

[rskin72]

OP mentions core players.....is that the same thing as impact playmakers? What I find frustrating as a fan is when a team like Indy goes 2-14 last season.....blows up their team, hires new coaches and GM, rookie QB.....and lo and behold they are doing better (at this point) than our team who supposedly had a nice youth movement to combine with established veterans.....medidiots thought the Redskins would do better - record wise - than the Colts due to that facts this season. Not the case so far.

There are a lot of nagging issues about this team this season that cause me to wonder about the true talent level on this roster....especially on D. Who do we have on D that is playing at the impact playmaker level this season? Heck, who is playing at a decent level....especially in the secondary? I think some of the issue is not only talent level of the players.....but also the skill (or lack therein) of some members of our coaching staff.

Look....between loss of draft picks for our rookie stud QB....and the Mara cap hit nonsense......how much can we realistically expect our talent level to improve in the off season?

[Skinsinparadise]

Orakpo and Davis may come back 100% but that outcome is in serious doubt for both.

You can do that if you like, but I wouldn't touch it. About 80% of the Stadium membership thought I was mad when I estimated the average value of the QB position at 10%. They don't realize that 10% is a very high number for one player. They don't have their own estimate. They just think mine is ridiculous.

In serious doubt by whom? Definitely not for Davis, its an injury that's not uncommon for receivers. Orkapo maybe -- upper body injuries are more rare and its more of an unknown how he bounces back. OK, well if we don't quantity differences in having players at core players versus any position -- IMO it doesn't work that well apples to apples in particular in this case. IMO having a strong safety and a decent but not elite TE as part of a core number of players doesn't scream a team on the right track. Having a QB, pass rushers, decent O line does -- see NY Giants.

If I critiqued Shanny it would be IMO he's delusional and remains so about the talent on defense -- said this week it would be top 10 maybe even top 5 without the injuries -- I think that's absurd. Granted they were better last year. But to go back to a baseball analogy our secondary IMO is like having a full relief staff with no closer and mediocre relievers -- at key moments in the game its going to be exposed and exposed and exposed. And while I like Orkapo and Kerrigan (don't love them but like them) we also need some interior pressure. One person responded to this point by saying its not about interior pressure on the D line in a 3-4 -- but that's not true -- yes the prime duty is to occupy blockers, but you want pressure in key passing downs too, hence that's why guys like J. Smith, JJ. Watt are talked about so much.

I'd go higher if he's an elite QB like we likely got. But agree 10% is healthy, means he's worth better than double any player on the team.

Edit: Recalling Shanny himself quantified not by number but what positions he thinks are most critical -- I've heard him say it QB, pass rush, and O line he deems most important. If so, he's doing decently. But not as much with pass rush, considering he believes its important i'd expect a concentration on it in the off season. I know he considers a shut down corner important because he talked about it in context of the Bailey/Portis trade. So hopefully those are his areas of off season focus.

[Gurgeh]

And Polumbus' numbers have been pretty good the last few games. Lichtensteiger's numbers were off the charts last year and just average now, it could be a case that he needs to get a year past the injury to get back to what he was last year.

And it's not just the sack numbers. The line deserves credit when the rushing attack is so good.

The improvement of Polumbus is gratifying, and I think shows how important keeping the same players in the OL from week to week is to the development of players. Trent Williams is by some distance the best line player and perhaps the only one you'd call "core", but the line and RGIII are in sync right now and if Polombus continues to improve I don't think any changes will be required to the starting line even if Trent is the only stand-out player.

[Oldfan]

In the American system, a foot equals 12 inches. It always equals 12 inches. It's a standard. The system would become useless if we decided that a foot should equal 10 inches one time, then 11 another.

In this grading system, I am the reluctant keeper of the standard for realism in the OP list. I would rather not be involved but I can't figure out a way to get out of the job.

This is like an arbitration process. I'm hearing arguments from the pessimistic group on one side, those who would have a very short list, and the much larger homer group on the other, those who, as a consequence of seeing our roster through burgundy glasses, would have a much longer list.

You can look at our first list of core players from November, 2010 and see, with benefit of hindsight, that Alexander and Armstrong didn't belong. I reluctantly added them when they got a lot of support. A bunch of posters wanted Brandon Banks on the list.

I'd rather not, but I can't help injecting my personal opinion into the process. Take Lichtenstieger, for example. He's a good run blocker, but he's weak in pass protection. That fact has been masked by Mike Shanahan using RG3 the way he used Jay Cutler in 2008. His offense led the NFL with only 11 sacks that season. Rookie LT Ryan Clady gave up only 1.5. The following year, with McDaniel and Orton, Clady gave up 8.5.

Mike's scheme and RG3 are making our entire O-line look better than they really are -- including Trent Williams. Randy Holt is right. In pass protection, this line is weak. So, I won't add Kory or Chester to our list of core players in the OP. I don't think they are proven average NFL O-linemen.

Remember, whether you agree or disagree with my approach, the thing that matters is that I try to keep the same standard each time we do this.

---------- Post added November-1st-2012 at 09:30 AM ----------

In serious doubt by whom? Definitely not for Davis, its an injury that's not uncommon for receivers.

That's not my understanding. Achilles injuries come in grades. Without knowing the grade, there's doubt.

IMO having a strong safety and a decent but not elite TE as part of a core number of players doesn't scream a team on the right track. Having a QB, pass rushers, decent O line does -- see NY Giants.

If you can come up with a way to evaluate positions, I'll add it to the grading.

If I critiqued Shanny it would be IMO he's delusional and remains so about the talent on defense -- said this week it would be top 10 maybe even top 5 without the injuries -- I think that's absurd.

Agreed. The injuries have hurt no doubt but the unit is not that talented.

I'd go higher if he's an elite QB like we likely got. But agree 10% is healthy, means he's worth better than double any player on the team.

That 10% was an average. When the QB is used as a runner, and when he is asked to throw on the move, that number goes a little higher than average. The position value and the QB's grade are two different numbers.

[The Robert Griffin Experience]

In serious doubt by whom? Definitely not for Davis, its an injury that's not uncommon for receivers.

http://lowerextremityreview.com/arti...tendon-rupture

Furthermore, in the reviewed 21 NFL skill players who returned to play, there were significant decreases in games played per season (11.67 games per year pre-injury versus 6.17 games per year postinjury) when averaged over the three seasons before the injury and the three seasons after the injury.3 There were also decreases averaging nearly 50% in power ratings of the returning players for the three seasons after the injury compared to the three seasons before the injury. These data indicate that even in players able to return to their former level of play, the quality of play may suffer permanently.

With Davis, hope for the best, but definitely prepare for the worst. ACL tears are one thing. Just ask Adrian Peterson, and for all the talk about losing Carriker, Jenkins is playing at about the same level coming off an ACL injury .Suggs *might* be a success story, but his tear was only partial, and we don't know if he's actually going to be the same, though he did have a sack in his first game back. Achilles tears are what ACL tears were 10 years ago right now.

[cphil006]

I don't mind my threads taking a tangent if it provokes interesting discussion.

My theory is that most penalties trace back to lack of talent. Players who are not capable of handing an opponent man-to-man will try to cheat.

---------- Post added October-31st-2012 at 11:02 AM ----------

Rak's upper body strength is affected. Similar injuries ended Samuels career on the other side of that confrontation.

You sure it's just a pain thing? The toe is important to receivers (Antonio Gates).

Chris Samuels retired because of his neck injury (related to spinal stenosis) coupled with the fact he had played for 10+ seasons. The only thing he tore was a triceps in Dec 2008, which he came back fine the next season only to compress his spine against the Panthers.

Orakpo isn't that old, can can very realistically recover from this, especially since it happened so early in the season.

As far as Garcon goes, if surgery fixes the pain and repairs the torn ligament... it's not unrealistic to think he can fully recover. He's not that old.

[jamestrash]

I don't think the strength of the roster is necessarily based on individuals. The O-line is playing well as a unit with one star and some janitorial help. The roster has good intangible/ depth guys like Niles Paul and Lo Alexander. Conversely, the front 7, which supposedly has good building blocks, has been MIA.