November now, and we've entered that time of year where for the next four months or so, the probability of seeing winter weather is greatly enhanced
What's in store for this winter? It's becoming increasingly...unclear. A very favorable (for winter storms) El Nino was setting up, but decided to change it's mind. Conditions in the Pacific look (right now) as they'll be neutral for the most part. Haven't checked recently, and I'll update once I do, but I think conditions in the Atlantic are still forecasted to be favorable for average or below average winter temps for the mid Atlantic.
I'm fairly confident we won't see a repeat of last year which was a total dud. Unfortunately, (I like snow) I'm also fairly confident we won't see a repeat of 2009/'10.
Near term - Models have been waffling on a little system coming through mid next week. Earlier GFS had the system riding up the coast close enough to give us rain changing to a snow. Latest one, running now, and I think most of the other models have it scooting out to sea. Likely a non event, but something to keep and eye on I guess, and a reminder to us what time of year it is