I think that if the polls are within a couple % of either winning on average then Romney will end up winning. I think you should consider it like Romney will get 3-5% more than the polls say in other words.
Many of the "hype" voters for Obama won't show up this time, IMO, and the "nutcase" side of the republican party are going to show up in force, even dragging along their 95 year old almost dead relatives or anybody they can talk into voting to add a vote as well. My crazy mother has been nagging everybody in the family to go out and vote Obama out for almost the whole 4 years.
Here's the deal. I never vote, a lot of people never vote or usually just don't feel like it, but if we are walking down the street and are asked who we will vote for we will give an answer, then never show up. Those people this time are possibly going to show up for Romney just like they showed up for Obama last time because last time they hated Bush or anything republican enough to vote, and this time they hate Obama. Thats good for a few % swing IMO. I'm still not voting but if I did it'd be for Johnson and no it's not what Fox says, I don't even smoke weed, lol.
Also, the country has had its first minority, and first black president already. Some minorities wont show up to vote and a lot of hispanics will vote the other way.
Of course I could be totally wrong too but I doubt it. I just don't think those polls are ever that accurate. Then again Obama might have a 4-5% lead and he'll win anyway but it comes down to Ohio, Florida and 1 or 2 other states really.