LolAs of Wednesday, November 7th, 2012, Nate Silver is probably a witch.
(personally, i feel like economic factors are already baked into the polls themselves, and he's just sort of adding noisy variables by trying to incorporate them seperately, but hey he's clearly a smarter person than i am)
Last edited by greenspandan; November-7th-2012 at 02:16 PM.
It's hard to image that his predictions could get much more accurate.
Plus, kudos to the folks at Public Policy Polling (PPP). They took a lot of flack from right-wingers for their supposedly ridiculous left-wing slant and were also highly accurate.
There are definitely many ways to do this, and I wonder if there will be more Nate Silver competitors in future elections.
Public Policy Polling most accurate predictor of 2012 elections
Fordham University has ranked the polls that predicted the outcome of the presidential election, and Raleigh-based Public Policy Polling came in first—and second.
One of the polls conducted by the Democratic-leaning firm was independent and the other in tandem with Daily Kos and the Service Emplyoees International Union.
Here are the full rankings:
1. PPP (D)*
1. Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP*
5. Purple Strategies
13. Pew Research*
13. Hartford Courant/UConn*
15. FOX News
15. Washington Times/JZ Analytics
15. Newsmax/JZ Analytics
15. American Research Group
15. Gravis Marketing
23. Democracy Corps (D)*
27. National Journal*
Click on the link to read the rest.
Surprise at Obama’s victory illustrates growing partisan divide in US media
The big media story emerging from President Obama’s reelection is the fact that so many on the right were so stunned by the results.
Social media were abuzz with shock and dismay at what many conservatives felt was a last-minute reversal of the prolific positive predictions they had been hearing.
More than a few conservative commentators, including prominent pundits such as George Will, had been predicting that Mitt Romney would take more than 300 electoral votes in a landslide election on Tuesday.
At the same time, statistical blogger Nate Silver at The New York Times and survey aggregator Real Clear Politics were citing polls that showed Mr. Obama with a clear lead.
But, rather than the purportedly surprising election results reflecting some national subversion of the voting process, many political scientists and other analysts say this right-wing upset is dramatic evidence of a growing partisan divide in our media.
Increasingly, the public consumes media that reinforce personal views rather than give actual information about the world, says University of San Francisco political scientist Corey Cook.
“The biggest story of this election is the stories that were being told about the election,” says Professor Cook, adding, “the two sides had very different views heading into the election night.”
Last edited by BRAVEONAWARPATH; November-8th-2012 at 12:48 PM.
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/...d-file/264855/On the biggest political story of the year, the conservative media just got its ass handed to it by the mainstream media. And movement conservatives, who believe the MSM is more biased and less rigorous than their alternatives, have no way to explain how their trusted outlets got it wrong, while the New York Times got it right. Hint: The Times hired the most rigorous forecaster it could find.
It ought to be an eye-opening moment.
But I expect that it'll be quickly forgotten, that none of the conservatives who touted a polling conspiracy will be discredited, and that the right will continue to operate at an information disadvantage. After all, it's not like they'll trust the analysis of a non-conservative like me more than the numerous fellow conservatives who constantly tell them things that turn out not to be true.
So no I don't believe for a moment they'll admit their misske and change, in fact I believe they'll just double down again.
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