Israel-Palestine kerfuffle

[Larry]

The Egyptian president just used his chips with the west. He basically desolved the democracy and restructured it under his office. He suspended the judicial branch of government and said it could make any rulings against his authority... He proved how valuable and important Egypt was, and then he consolidated his power basically what every guy to ever gain office has done over the last 2000 years. And we are supprised.

And his people may overthrow him.

If your point is "political capital can be used for things we don't approve of", than well, duh.

(If your point is "see, these people over there are too savage to be allowed power", then, well, I guess we disagree.)

[JMS]

And his people may overthrow him.

If your point is "political capital can be used for things we don't approve of", than well, duh.

I guess my point was he took all of about 24 hours to cash in his chip. The money we give Egypt still makes us a pretty big player in Egypt. It will be interesting if Obama stands aside for this. We could suspend aid, or suspend targeted aid like military aid; we have options here. Only given the Egyptian President is pretty much showing us that he's a guy we can live with. Sure he ignores us and does his own thing; but even then it seems to work out better for us in the end...

(1) Mohomed Morsi comes to power saying it won't be business as usual and the west has a collective gulp at what that means.. But so far Morsi has been pretty responsible.

(2) Militants attack and murder Egyptian troops; Morsi orders more armored units into the Sinia... We wince, and Israel objects cause it's a violation of the peace agreement. Morsi removes them within hours.

(3) Mohamed Morsi ignores our objections and travels to Iran for a Middle East Summit.. When he get's there he gives a big speach on what bastards the Iranians are for backing Syria against it's own people and the Arab Spring which also brought Morsi to power.

(4) We get upset with Morsi for establising relationship with Hamas the terrorist organization which is our worst nightmare... The political leader of the Moslem brotherhood arms around Hamas... Then he uses this relationship to negotiate a cease fire with Israel something we really wanted.

The next heart stopper which is coming up is the largely dominant Moslem Brotherhood and more radical Islamic parties are crafting a Constitution for Egypt... Given Morsi's recent suspension of the judicial branch of government I think we are thinking the worst.

(If your point is "see, these people over there are too savage to be allowed power", then, well, I guess we disagree.)

Is he going to be a Sadat, a Nasser, or a Mubarik... We just don't know yet. Whatever he is it says more about him than the Egyptian people now that he's potentially suspending Democracy.

[Larry]

Yeah, but so far, looks like he's mostly doing the right thing. (Except by his own people.)

Is that something we can live with?

(I suspect it is. I wish we could make him be OK by his own people, too. but if that's the only knock against him, then I think our reaction is "it sure could have been worse".)

(And the domestic situation might straighten itself out. I read that apparently the new Judiciary is standing up to him. And his own people might, too.)

Maybe it's just my natural optimism, but right now, I think the ME is better off than it was, before Arab Spring. (And if the folks in Syria can get off the can and overthrow their government, they'll get even better.)

[JMS]

Yeah, but so far, looks like he's mostly doing the right thing. (Except by his own people.)
Is that something we can live with?

Well that's a two edged sword too though isn't it. Can anybody entertain the best interest of the Egyptian people is to get into a war with Israel? Israel is about 1000 times more powerful than they were in the early 1970's the last time Egypt went to war with her, and Egypt militarily is a shadow of it's former soviet aligned self. And the contest wasn't very close even then...

No I think Morsi is actually acting in Egypts best interest if he's able to keep the tension between Egypt and Israel contained. I'm really wondering if the US is behind Morsi's declaration. I think many in the US dream of a return to the days of Mubarik. A dependable, predictable strong man, who will accept our money, and in exchange not cause trouble with Israel. It appears so far that's what Morsi is morphing into. An Egyptian leader focusing on Egypts many internal problems, accepting of western aid and debt forgiveness to help him. A strong man who will avoid starting new problems for Egypt, with their next door neighbor. I wonder if this entire move to bypass the courts wasn't pre vetted with the United States cause you know if our aid stopped Egypts misserable economy would crater. Morsi wouldn't risk that.

Coarse the flip side of that is democracies denied tend to come out eventually. The harder you suppress them, potentially the more violent the reaction when they assert themselves. It's rather short sighted to depend on a strong man to secure Israel rather than convince the Egyptian people. Coarse convincing the Egyptian people could be expensive and also is less predictable. Which is why traditionally we are more comfortable dealing with strong men.

Maybe it's just my natural optimism, but right now, I think the ME is better off than it was, before Arab Spring. (And if the folks in Syria can get off the can and overthrow their government, they'll get even better.)

Too early to tell. I think Democracies can be potentially very agressive. It was a democracy which killed Socrates after all. Right now all these new "democracies" are consolidating power. It's the next stage we need to worry about.

[visionary]

http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomac...emium-1.480735

Israel, U.S. hold secret talks on softening Palestinian Authority's UN bid

Israel is negotiating with the United States over the wording of the proposal at the UN General Assembly Thursday that would upgrade the Palestinians to observer status.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's representative at the talks, Isaac Molho, left for Washington unannounced on Sunday to meet with senior White House and State Department officials.

In recent weeks Israel has declared that it objects to any wording the Palestinians would bring for a vote at the General Assembly. Israel has refused to negotiate over the proposal's wording and has even asked the United States and EU countries not to enter talks on the matter. Rather, it wants them to put pressure on Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to postpone the bid.

A senior Israeli official noted that in recent days senior U.S. officials told Netanyahu and his advisers that Abbas is determined to complete the UN process and that they see no way to block a vote. The U.S. administration says it will try to soften the wording, in an attempt at damage limitation.

http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomac...emium-1.480495

PLO: Vote against Palestine at UN will signal that only armed struggle works

Four days before the United Nations vote on recognition of Palestine as a non-member state, the Palestine Liberation Organization says it is expecting a "pleasant surprise" in the UN General Assembly in New York. According to PLO sources, representatives of seven more European countries have indicated they will vote to admit Palestine as a non-member state. Five other European countries had already announced they would support the bid and France's foreign minister, Laurent Fabius, has broadly hinted that France will vote in favor.

"Until about two weeks ago we were quaking because only three countries had said they were voting in favor," a PLO official told Haaretz. Sources in the PLO said Britain had given up on its efforts to get the Palestinians to postpone their bid. "The United States, which was busy with the elections, contracted Britain to apply pressure, which failed," the sources said. The PLO said it was also pleased that Germany, though it will probably oppose the motion, at least was not using its power to dissuade other countries from casting a vote in favor.

"Anyone who doesn't vote in favor is a coward or immoral, that was our message," said another member of the Palestinian diplomatic team which in the past two months has been waging what he called "a diplomatic and political street struggle" in European capitals, trying to convince them that a vote for non-member status for Palestine was a vote for a two-state solution within the 1967 borders.

[visionary]

Resolution just passed. The US and Susan Rice in particular for speaking out against it at the UN now are getting bashed mercilessly on twitter.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...8AR0EG20121129

Palestinians win implicit U.N. recognition of sovereign state

The 193-nation U.N. General Assembly overwhelmingly approved a resolution on Thursday to upgrade the Palestinian Authority's observer status at the United Nations from "entity" to "non-member state," implicitly recognizing a Palestinian state.

There were 138 votes in favor, nine against and 41 abstentions

https://twitter.com/pdanahar

Voted No: Canada, Czechs, Palau, Nauru, Micronesia, Marshall island, Panama, US, Israel.
5:26 PM

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https://twitter.com/oxfordgirl

Very, very bad speech from Susan Rice, you have just lost a lot of respect worldwide. US looks like a toothless tiger, how sad
5:08 PM

https://twitter.com/MohammedASalih

I wonder if the script Susan Rice is reading from was directly faxed to her from Netanyahu's office! She sounds harsher than him!
5:12 PM

https://twitter.com/rzsanati

Truly feel bad for @AmbassadorRice. What an awful position to be in, defending something that all of mankind is against.
5:13 PM

https://twitter.com/Doylech

US standing in the Middle East manages to reach new lows, and then goes even lower. Incredible achievement
5:29 PM

[Larry]

Rather puzzled as to why the US would be so opposed to this thing. (Unless it's simply a case of doing what Our Israeli Masters Order.)

To me, recognizing Palestine is like recognizing gravity. Anything else is simply denying reality.

And I think that recognizing the West Bank (as opposed to Hamas) is a good political play. IMO, if you don;t like Hamas, then you want to see the Palestine that didn't vote for them, to have some victories.

[twa]

Rather puzzled as to why the US would be so opposed to this thing. (Unless it's simply a case of doing what Our Israeli Masters Order.)

the Oslo Accords maybe

[JMS]

Rather puzzled as to why the US would be so opposed to this thing. (Unless it's simply a case of doing what Our Israeli Masters Order.)

To me, recognizing Palestine is like recognizing gravity. Anything else is simply denying reality.

And I think that recognizing the West Bank (as opposed to Hamas) is a good political play. IMO, if you don;t like Hamas, then you want to see the Palestine that didn't vote for them, to have some victories.

I think the facts are we secretly wanted this declaration as it coincides with our stated long term goal for the region... Two independent states living side by side. So now the UN has recognized kinda, Palestinians as an independent state...

We and Israel give up very little; meanwhile it seem the Palestinians have given up or weakened a potentially powerful argument looming over Israel's head. The apartheid argument, the claim by the Palestinians they are not an independent state, having lived under occupation for 70 years, that they should be granted the vote. Being recognized by the UN would seem to dilute that argument.

Why did we vote against this, because frankly Bibi Netanyahu's ruling coalition doesn't support a two state solution even though every US President since and including Clinton has. This is due to internal Israeli politics even though the Kadima party which won the most votes in the last Israeli election did favor a two state solution for exactly the reasons outlined above. I also think it's just less controversial to do what everybody thinks we would do and use our UN vote to rubber stamp the policy of Israel's government. Suffice it to say our vote which we lost what 300-9 was symbology, and the symbology we were asserting is we stand with Israel. This makes sense cause our policy has never been to pressure Israel on peace; Rather we support Israel hopefully making peace talks more possible. Our vote would have been just as meaningless in the real world if we voted the other way but as a symbol it would have telegraphed a message we weren't willing to send. Besides our policy has always been to support Israel but Israel has to do the heavy lifting.


So secretly I think their are a lot of Israeli's and Americans happy about this move.

[Larry]

We and Israel give up very little; meanwhile it seem the Palestinians have given up or weakened a potentially powerful argument looming over Israel's head. The apartheid argument, the claim by the Palestinians they are not an independent state, having lived under occupation for 70 years, that they should be granted the vote. Being recognized by the UN would seem to dilute that argument.

Oh, I think we all agree that if it came down to a choice between

1. The Palestinians voting for the government of a country called Palestine.
2. The Palestinians voting for the government of Israel.

Every person in Israel says "Uh, I'll take Option A".

Why did we vote against this, because frankly Bibi Netanyahu's ruling coalition doesn't support a two state solution even though every US President since and including Clinton has. This is due to internal Israeli politics even though the Kadima party which won the most votes in the last Israeli election did favor a two state solution for exactly the reasons outlined above. I also think it's just less controversial to do what everybody thinks we would do and use our UN vote to rubber stamp the policy of Israel's government. Suffice it to say our vote which we lost what 300-9 was symbology, and the symbology we were asserting is we stand with Israel. This makes sense cause our policy has never been to pressure Israel on peace; Rather we support Israel hopefully making peace talks more possible. Our vote would have been just as meaningless in the real world if we voted the other way but as a symbol it would have telegraphed a message we weren't willing to send. Besides our policy has always been to support Israel but Israel has to do the heavy lifting.

Oh, I agree. This vote is so lopsided that our vote was a symbol. (But, because of our importance, a really big symbol.)

But that goes both ways, too.

We chose to be essentially the only country on Earth to vote against this.

That's a symbol, too.

I think the wrong one.

To me, we chose to stand in the schoolhouse door, that day.

[JMS]

Oh, I think we all agree that if it came down to a choice between

1. The Palestinians voting for the government of a country called Palestine.
2. The Palestinians voting for the government of Israel.

Every person in Israel says "Uh, I'll take Option A".

One would think.. but logic and reason aren't always the things which govern ones actions.

The question is you are in a train tunnel and you see a light and hear a noise coming towards you.. Do you assume it's a rabbit pumping frantically on a coachman's car or do you assume it's a train and you need to run like hell.
Aryail Sharon one of the most hard ass fring right wing political figures in the history of Israel came to the conclusion that it must be a train. Thus in order to escape the demographic bomb ( Jew's being a minority based on Population in greater Israel)... he opted for the two state solution..
This was quite a deal given the fact he couldn't even bring himself to sit at the table with the Palestinians who seemingly would agree with some of his positions... ( removing settlers from Gaza)... etc..

On the other hand Benjamen Netanyahu has decided the noise and light don't mean a train is coming; and has decided to ignore the fact that Jews are today a minority of the people in greater Israel ( Israel + occupied territories)... So Bibi is just going to continue with the status quoe unpressurized with the changing demographics..

Oh, I agree. This vote is so lopsided that our vote was a symbol. (But, because of our importance, a really big symbol.)

But that goes both ways, too.

We chose to be essentially the only country on Earth to vote against this.

Yes, but isn't that a given? We have used our veto in the security councel more times in defense of Israel since 1980 than all the other security councel members combined have used their veto's over that period of time.
I don't think it shocked anybody we voted against this meaningless recognition. I think it would have shocked everybody if we had voted for it.

That's a symbol, too.

I think the wrong one.

To me, we chose to stand in the schoolhouse door, that day.

I think ultimately I'm ambivalent. The vote was meaningless so I don't have a big problem with us using our vote on the side of stability given the region is in such flux anyway.

I am a big proponent of a negotiated peace. So to my mind does the vote against support the peace talks which are just about non existent; or do they ultimately harm the peace talks... Is Israel the kind of country who would see the world arrayed against them and acquiesce? Or are they the kind of country which would dig in? I'll leave that up too you, I will just note that this kind of vote going against Israel is not an isolated thing. If Obama wants to actually try to get Israel to move on some of the peace talks, he needed to vote against this bill, period the end.

Now that he's done that, let's see what happens. Maybe the next such vote the US administration will decide that being seen as backing Israel entirely isn't the best way to motivate Israel after all.

[Larry]

Yahoo: Israel okays new West Bank settlement construction

JERUSALEM (AP) — Israel approved the construction of 3,000 homes in Jewish settlements in the West Bank and east Jerusalem, a government official said Friday, drawing swift criticism from the Palestinians a day after their successful U.N. recognition bid.

The Palestinians strongly condemned the announcement and repeated their refusal to start peace negotiations while building continued. With Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu apparently poised for re-election and insisting that any negotiations begin without preconditions, prospects for peace appear to be going into deep freeze.

The unusually large building plan came a day after the United Nations voted overwhelmingly to accept a Palestinian state in the West Bank, the Gaza Strip and east Jerusalem as a non-member observer state, setting off jubilant celebrations among Palestinians.

I'm well aware that my anger management skills are insufficient to a career in international diplomacy.

But I will confess that, every time I see this story, the fantasy that occurs to me has myself, as President, announcing that any attempt to construct or expand any settlement will by opposed by the US Marines.

(This probably explains why, in the words of the old cliche, I will never be President.)

There was a principal that I thought we established in Desert Storm: That no, the US will not permit a nation to simply decide to take a piece of another country. And yet, there seems to be an asterisk on that policy, along the lines of "unless it's Israel, in which case the US will not only not oppose it, but will endorse it and subsidize it."

Sorry for the rant. Probably need to cool off some.

[twa]

How can you take a piece from a country w/o borders that you already occupy?

Did you seriously expect Israel to not respond to them going for UN recognition instead of negotiating

[Larry]

deleted post. Think calm thoughts.

[JMS]

How can you take a piece from a country w/o borders that you already occupy?

Did you seriously expect Israel to not respond to them going for UN recognition instead of negotiating

#1 The only reason the Palestinians don't have offical boarders is because ISrael doesn't have or claim international boarders.
Jordan, Syria, Lebonon and Egypt all have offical boarders. Israel doesn't.

#2 Israel has been illegally creating and expanding their settlements since 1967 in oposition to UN resolutions telling them to allow the people they displaced to return to their homes.. No nation in the world recognized Israel's rights to the occupied territories not even the United States and Israel
they continues to illegally build homes there and continues to confiscate Palestinian land through force of arms.

#3 Un recognition is meaningless unless the palestinians get US and other security councel members on their side. Crap like this goes a long way towards accmplishing that.

#4 There is no military path toward peace for Israel. Her only path to peace is negotiation. Crap like this just puts negotiations that much further away.