Who should win the 2012 AL MVP award?

[Predicto]

Trout's Wins Above Replacement (WAR), the overall measure of quality that includes all aspects of the game, was 10 this year, the best in the majors, according to Fangraphs.com. Cabrera's WAR was 7.1. The Angels' total team WAR, encompassing all players, was 37.4. Detroit's was 21.1.

So, Cabrera contributed 33.6% of his team's total value, Trout 26.7%.

This is what I mean about WAR being an easily manipulated stat.

[Tulane Skins Fan]

My issue with WAR, is that its not 100% subjective. If they played the same postion, then yes, but the baseline stats for a replacement outfielder and a replacement third baseman are very different.

Trout gets a major bump in WAR with his amazing speed and defense. Everybody knows Cabrera is a butcher, and just converted back to third base. Everybdoy leaves this out though, so they can just tout how great Trouts WAR was. I'm actually more impressed that Cabrera ONLY had 13 errors this season. When you consider that he had 23 in his prior season at third base, which was FIVE YEARS AGO.

Case in point, the following players had better WAR's this season than Miguel Cabrera.

Mike Trout
Buster Posey
Ryan Braun
Robinson Cano
CHASE HEADLEY
Andrew McCutchen

Chase Headley? Seriously? I thnk that says all I need to say about WAR.......

I don't get this. Hadley hits 30 omers in a pitchers park and plays great D so the Fact that WAR calls him valuable is a mistake?

RBIs are worthless. I suggest the book Moneyball for starters.

Also predicto, 2 ways to compute WAR. But, they both do different things. It's not a perfect stat either way, but it's very useful.

Also, I guess I get one point for Picking Cabrera to win, but "coming off as a dick.". Actually, I thought sticks and I had a good conversation until a certain poster came along.

[Tulane Skins Fan]

My issue with WAR, is that its not 100% subjective. If they played the same postion, then yes, but the baseline stats for a replacement outfielder and a replacement third baseman are very different.

Trout gets a major bump in WAR with his amazing speed and defense. Everybody knows Cabrera is a butcher, and just converted back to third base. Everybdoy leaves this out though, so they can just tout how great Trouts WAR was. I'm actually more impressed that Cabrera ONLY had 13 errors this season. When you consider that he had 23 in his prior season at third base, which was FIVE YEARS AGO.

Case in point, the following players had better WAR's this season than Miguel Cabrera.

Mike Trout
Buster Posey
Ryan Braun
Robinson Cano
CHASE HEADLEY
Andrew McCutchen

Chase Headley? Seriously? I thnk that says all I need to say about WAR.......

I don't get this. Hadley hits 30 omers in a pitchers park and plays great D so the Fact that WAR calls him valuable is a mistake?

RBIs are worthless. I suggest the book Moneyball for starters.

Also predicto, 2 ways to compute WAR. But, they both do different things. It's not a perfect stat either way, but it's very useful.

Also, I guess I get one point for Picking Cabrera to win, but "coming off as a dick.". Actually, I thought sticks and I had a good conversation until a certain poster came along.

[Sticksboi05]

I don't get this. Hadley hits 30 omers in a pitchers park and plays great D so the Fact that WAR calls him valuable is a mistake?

RBIs are worthless. I suggest the book Moneyball for starters.

Also predicto, 2 ways to compute WAR. But, they both do different things. It's not a perfect stat either way, but it's very useful.

Also, I guess I get one point for Picking Cabrera to win, but "coming off as a dick.". Actually, I thought sticks and I had a good conversation until a certain poster came along.

That was one of the best debates I've had on ES. All facts, no name-calling, call tempers.

[Tulane Skins Fan]

That was one of the best debates I've had on ES. All facts, no name-calling, call tempers.

And agreed!

[lovetoaster]

I was in favor of Cabrera, but this is proof that the baseball writers are idiots. The VP of the BBWA wrote a big ol column in support of Trout...and then voted for Cabrera.

http://deadspin.com/5961069/the-base...eague-mvp-vote

[stevemcqueen1]

I am saying that Trout's WAR is inflated due to his defense.

The same way the SABR crew tries to dimiish RBIs, I'm trying to diminish defense. (Both sides of this argument are flawed. 100%)

Case in point, Trout's UZR (whatever the **** that is, but this website does say it's a defensive metric) is a 11.4. On contrast, Cabrera's is a -10. That 21.4 point swing factors in very much to Trout's advantage in WAR.

Because defense absolutely. positively. matters. Why are you trying to devalue/eliminate defense from the equation? It's a huge factor in a player's value. Just as base running is.

The point of baseball is to score runs AND prevent runs from being scored.

---------- Post added November-15th-2012 at 11:20 PM ----------

The baseball writers have gotten it wrong many a time before. This was no different. At least it wasn't even remotely as bad as giving Juan Gonzalez the MVP twice.

You know what they should have asked every voter to submit with his MVP ballot? A one word answer to the question, "Who would you rather have on your team, Trout or Cabrera?"

Then you could see who was full of **** as they voted.

---------- Post added November-15th-2012 at 11:35 PM ----------

I'm going to give Sticks a two point win...one point for backing the winner, and the other for not coming off like a complete dick while arguing his point.

I listen to sports talk radio a lot and the two local guys both argued that the case for Cabrera as if it was unapproachable--nevermind all of the facts they were completely ignoring. They're kind of stupid.

What bothered me about the strident Pro Cabrera argument was how lazy it was. So much of it simply made 0 attempt to understand and address the (superior) arguments of the Trout side.

I'm so tired of the RBI stat. I'm so tired of it being misunderstood. I'm so tired of silly, disingenuous semantic arguments about what "Most Valuable Player" really means. When you're talking about the best individual award to give out, who gives a crap about anything other than who the best player was in a year?

[Sticksboi05]

Because defense absolutely. positively. matters. Why are you trying to devalue/eliminate defense from the equation? It's a huge factor in a player's value. Just as base running is.

The point of baseball is to score runs AND prevent runs from being scored.

---------- Post added November-15th-2012 at 11:20 PM ----------

The baseball writers have gotten it wrong many a time before. This was no different. At least it wasn't even remotely as bad as giving Juan Gonzalez the MVP twice.

You know what they should have asked every voter to submit with his MVP ballot? A one word answer to the question, "Who would you rather have on your team, Trout or Cabrera?"

Then you could see who was full of **** as they voted.

---------- Post added November-15th-2012 at 11:35 PM ----------



I listen to sports talk radio a lot and the two local guys both argued that the case for Cabrera as if it was unapproachable--nevermind all of the facts they were completely ignoring. They're kind of stupid.

What bothered me about the strident Pro Cabrera argument was how lazy it was. So much of it simply made 0 attempt to understand and address the (superior) arguments of the Trout side.

I'm so tired of the RBI stat. I'm so tired of it being misunderstood. I'm so tired of silly, disingenuous semantic arguments about what "Most Valuable Player" really means. When you're talking about the best individual award to give out, who gives a crap about anything other than who the best player was in a year?

The NHL has the best system.

Hart Trophy - most valuable player to their team PHWA
Pearson Trophy - most outstanding player as voted by the NHLPA

[MLSKINS]

That was one of the best debates I've had on ES. All facts, no name-calling, call tempers.

And agreed!

Get a room.....

You know what they should have asked every voter to submit with his MVP ballot? A one word answer to the question, "Who would you rather have on your team, Trout or Cabrera?"

Then you could see who was full of **** as they voted.

That isn't fair, no sane person would say they would rather have Cabrera. I think there is a better way to answer that question.

---------- Post added November-16th-2012 at 08:56 AM ----------

The NHL has the best system.

Hart Trophy - most valuable player to their team PHWA
Pearson Trophy - most outstanding player as voted by the NHLPA

The NHL is such a cool league... too bad the idiots in control can't see just how good it is.

[Heidenreich]

My issue with WAR has been documented already. And again, I think Trout's WAR lead is pumped up due to Cabrera's horrific defense. I think we can all agree on that.

I've read moneyball, I still think RBI is a stat that matters. I also have won the same amount of title's as Billy Beane. I will never agree that it's arbitrary. And if you're all up on moneyball, you know what else doesn't matter? Stolen Bases. So now Cabrera is ahead even more in the offensive categories that seem to matter.

Let's say I buy that RBI is meaningless, and random. It all hinges on who's on base when. So this year:

Trout- 306 baserunners, 55 scored. 18% cash in rate
Cabrera- 444 baserunners, 98 scored. 22% cash in rate.

So even if we discount his RBI's as "arbitrary", Cabrera was still a better player based on the percentage of baserunners he drove in. He also led the league in runs created.

It's not by much, and Trout had an amazing year, no doubt about it, but Miguel Cabrera is and should be the MVP. The metrics just crush him because of his defense. Which has NEVER been a factor in a single MVP vote in the history of the sport.....

[Tulane Skins Fan]

My issue with WAR has been documented already. And again, I think Trout's WAR lead is pumped up due to Cabrera's horrific defense. I think we can all agree on that.

I've read moneyball, I still think RBI is a stat that matters. I also have won the same amount of title's as Billy Beane. I will never agree that it's arbitrary. And if you're all up on moneyball, you know what else doesn't matter? Stolen Bases. So now Cabrera is ahead even more in the offensive categories that seem to matter.

Let's say I buy that RBI is meaningless, and random. It all hinges on who's on base when. So this year:

Trout- 306 baserunners, 55 scored. 18% cash in rate
Cabrera- 444 baserunners, 98 scored. 22% cash in rate.

So even if we discount his RBI's as "arbitrary", Cabrera was still a better player based on the percentage of baserunners he drove in. He also led the league in runs created.

It's not by much, and Trout had an amazing year, no doubt about it, but Miguel Cabrera is and should be the MVP. The metrics just crush him because of his defense. Which has NEVER been a factor in a single MVP vote in the history of the sport.....

Moneyball certainly didn't have everything figured out, but it challenged the way people thought about baseball. And most of what they were doing still stands today.

RBI total is not something that a single player controls. I dont know how anyone can dispute that. Essentially, Miguel Cabrera does not have great influence over his own RBI total. He certainly has less influence of his RBI total than Trout had over his stolen base total.

Also, those percentages are not that different. And Trout did a lot more to produce runs other than "drive them in."

[Heidenreich]

Trout did, I agree. His Run produced this year was 138, Cabrera's was 139.

So I found a link which explains (kind of) what is calculated into WAR.

"
On offense, WAR measures raw production. Walks, singles, doubles, triples, home runs, and stolen bases are all assigned values, based on the number of runs each outcome has produced historically. The more home runs you hit, for example, the better your score. Nothing hypothetical about that.

WAR also gives players credit for fielding batted balls that average fielders can’t get to, for preventing runners from advancing an extra base because of their arms, and for using speed to stay out of double plays, or advance from first base to third base on a single. These defense and speed metrics are more subjective than the hitting ones."

So I'll do the raw data here.

Trout: 67 walks, 117 singles, 27 doubles, 8 triples, 30 home runs, 49 steals
Cabrera: 66 walks, 121 singles, 40 doubles, 0 triples, 44 home runs, 4 steals

Trout crushes him in the speed categories. (Steals/Triples). Cabrera has the edge in the power categories. (84 to 57 in doubles and homers).

All in all, though? the two players are pretty close. It's Trout plus 21 (with the 45+ steals making the entire swing). Once you factor in fielding and defense metrics? Cabrera gets crushed.

One more stat to add: Mike Trout grounded into 7 double plays this season. Cabrera hit into 28.

I find it interesting that RBI's dont matter at all, since baserunners are subjective. Yet you get punished if you hit a ground ball when somebody is on base?

[Tulane Skins Fan]

I find it interesting that RBI's dont matter at all, since baserunners are subjective. Yet you get punished if you hit a ground ball when somebody is on base?

You make an interesting point. I will say that it takes a skill to beat out double plays: speed. So, and if you consider "the ability to beat out a double play" a skill, then you can see how it adds value to a team. You only make one out instead of two, and you keep someone on base for the next batter.

Interesting point, but i think it goes less to the "he hit a ground ball" and more to the "the guy did/did not have speed."