Who should win the 2012 AL MVP award?

[Tulane Skins Fan]

I hate continuing this but the dude slumped, even mcqueen won't refute that. Again, relative to his standard of dominance, he didn't play terribly he just cooled off, alot. He had a scorching July which is when the hype machine exploded and then August and September he cooled off, alot. He was still good but offensively not near as good as Cabrera down the playoff run stretch. Again, my comparison was strictly offensively, he'll always win in WAR but I'm not arguing he's not a vastly superior defender/runner to Cabrera just that Cabrera will probably win because he was red hot when the Tigers needed him to be. And it's not that misleading, it's not like he had three 0-7 games that are just weighing him down. He cooled off, it happens, no way he was keeping up his July pace.

He was on fire for the last two weeks of the season.

I'm sorry, I feel like you're cherry picking what I'm saying too.

Let me ask you this, what is the exact time frame, date to date of his slump?

And I guess I will never understand why you just set aside his vastly superior defense.

[Sticksboi05]

He was on fire for the last two weeks of the season.

I'm sorry, I feel like you're cherry picking what I'm saying too.

Let me ask you this, what is the exact time frame, date to date of his slump?

And I guess I will never understand why you just set aside his vastly superior defense.

Here are his total stats affected game by game, Sep 15-30, the last two weeks before they were out of playoff contention (again, for the sake of my "pressure on/off" argument)

OBP SLG OPS AVG
.397 .565 .962 .331
.396 .562 .958 .329
.396 .558 .954 .327
.395 .556 .951 .327
.392 .551 .943 .324
.395 .560 .955 .326
.395 .558 .953 .325
.394 .554 .948 .323
.395 .554 .949 .324
.395 .551 .946 .323
.393 .547 .940 .320
.393 .555 .948 .321
.395 .560 .955 .322
.395 .557 .952 .321

How was he on fire, in that time all of his offensive stats dropped...

He did have a good last five games but half at least were played when the Angels season was already over so for the sake of what I'm arguing it doesn't matter.

I'm not ignoring Trout is better defensively. I already said he's a better all-around player earlier. I'm just saying, the voters love what they perceive to be clutch performance and Cabrera's performance down the stretch might boost him to the award that's all. I'm arguing one point, just that down the stretch Cabrera was a much more dominant hitter and that's complete fact. I'm just giving a reason why Trout may lose.

[Tulane Skins Fan]

Here are his total stats affected game by game, Sep 15-30, the last two weeks before they were out of playoff contention (again, for the sake of my "pressure on/off" argument)

OBP SLG OPS AVG
.397 .565 .962 .331
.396 .562 .958 .329
.396 .558 .954 .327
.395 .556 .951 .327
.392 .551 .943 .324
.395 .560 .955 .326
.395 .558 .953 .325
.394 .554 .948 .323
.395 .554 .949 .324
.395 .551 .946 .323
.393 .547 .940 .320
.393 .555 .948 .321
.395 .560 .955 .322
.395 .557 .952 .321

How was he on fire, in that time all of his offensive stats dropped...

He did have a good last five games but half at least were played when the Angels season was already over so for the sake of what I'm arguing it doesn't matter.

I'm not ignoring Trout is better defensively. I already said he's a better all-around player earlier. I'm just saying, the voters love what they perceive to be clutch performance and Cabrera's performance down the stretch might boost him to the award that's all. I'm arguing one point, just that down the stretch Cabrera was a much more dominant hitter and that's complete fact. I'm just giving a reason why Trout may lose.

We're just going back and forth now. I posted his last one week and his last two week stat lines. They were excellent. He didn't slump the last two weeks of the season.

Last one week: .379/.471/.793 slash line. 2 HR, 2SB, 5 Runs, etc. Great numbers over the last week: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...lter=&players=

And no, they were not eliminated for all of those games.

Last two weeks: .313/.441/.646 slash line. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...lter=&players=

I'm starting to wonder if he had one bad week in September that you are saying cost him the MVP.

[Sticksboi05]

We're just going back and forth now. I posted his last one week and his last two week stat lines. They were excellent. He didn't slump the last two weeks of the season.

Last one week: .379/.471/.793 slash line. 2 HR, 2SB, 5 Runs, etc. Great numbers over the last week: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...lter=&players=

And no, they were not eliminated for all of those games.

Last two weeks: .313/.441/.646 slash line. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...lter=&players=

I'm starting to wonder if he had one bad week in September that you are saying cost him the MVP.

No, you're just not seeing my point. You're arguing he had a good two weeks. Yes, that's a great line, however, my point is, relative to how he HAD been producing it was a slump. all his numbers dropped, that indicates a slump. It's like OV's 30-50-80 season. Fantastic numbers, but he still slumped because you expect 50-50-100. That shows how good Trout is that a slump for him is still a fantastic stat line. Again, he didn't play poorly, he just slowed down, a lot. But I mean in July he was on uncontrollably hot pace so it's not surprising.

[Tulane Skins Fan]

No, you're just not seeing my point. You're arguing he had a good two weeks. Yes, that's a great line, however, my point is, relative to how he HAD been producing it was a slump. all his numbers dropped, that indicates a slump. It's like OV's 30-50-80 season. Fantastic numbers, but he still slumped because you expect 50-50-100. That shows how good Trout is that a slump for him is still a fantastic stat line. Again, he didn't play poorly, he just slowed down, a lot. But I mean in July he was on uncontrollably hot pace so it's not surprising.

Well, I don't think that's a very good point. He had a great line but it wasn't as great as the rest of his season?

Nate Silver is a witch and he agrees with me: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...-p/?ref=sports

I win.

[Sticksboi05]

Well, I don't think that's a very good point. He had a great line but it wasn't as great as the rest of his season?

Nate Silver is a witch and he agrees with me: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...-p/?ref=sports

I win.

He hit .208 the second half of September. His OPS in that time was like .800. The first half of the month certainly wasn't much better. That's a slump. What do you call a slump? His numbers were also down in August.

[skinfan2k]

Miggy. For someone to do that when you know he is the team's best hitter is great.

[Predicto]

Aren't there something like 10 different ways to calculate WAR (so you can pretty much get to whatever result you want)?

[Heidenreich]

My issue with WAR, is that its not 100% subjective. If they played the same postion, then yes, but the baseline stats for a replacement outfielder and a replacement third baseman are very different.

Trout gets a major bump in WAR with his amazing speed and defense. Everybody knows Cabrera is a butcher, and just converted back to third base. Everybdoy leaves this out though, so they can just tout how great Trouts WAR was. I'm actually more impressed that Cabrera ONLY had 13 errors this season. When you consider that he had 23 in his prior season at third base, which was FIVE YEARS AGO.

Case in point, the following players had better WAR's this season than Miguel Cabrera.

Mike Trout
Buster Posey
Ryan Braun
Robinson Cano
CHASE HEADLEY
Andrew McCutchen

Chase Headley? Seriously? I thnk that says all I need to say about WAR.......

[AsiaticSkinsFan]

My issue with WAR, is that its not 100% subjective. If they played the same postion, then yes, but the baseline stats for a replacement outfielder and a replacement third baseman are very different.

Trout gets a major bump in WAR with his amazing speed and defense. Everybody knows Cabrera is a butcher, and just converted back to third base. Everybdoy leaves this out though, so they can just tout how great Trouts WAR was. I'm actually more impressed that Cabrera ONLY had 13 errors this season. When you consider that he had 23 in his prior season at third base, which was FIVE YEARS AGO.

Case in point, the following players had better WAR's this season than Miguel Cabrera.

Mike Trout
Buster Posey
Ryan Braun
Robinson Cano
CHASE HEADLEY
Andrew McCutchen

Chase Headley? Seriously? I thnk that says all I need to say about WAR.......

how can you dismiss Trout's superior defending because he is a better athlete?

Here is the fact, Trout = best defensive center fielder in the AL
Cabrera = mediocre to poor defensive 3rd basemen in the AL

---------- Post added November-15th-2012 at 05:30 PM ----------

I mean you are saying we should reward Cabrera for not being an abomination at 3rd base

[Heidenreich]

I am saying that Trout's WAR is inflated due to his defense.

The same way the SABR crew tries to dimiish RBIs, I'm trying to diminish defense. (Both sides of this argument are flawed. 100%)

Case in point, Trout's UZR (whatever the **** that is, but this website does say it's a defensive metric) is a 11.4. On contrast, Cabrera's is a -10. That 21.4 point swing factors in very much to Trout's advantage in WAR.

[ixcuincle]

Miguel won and rightfully so

[Forehead]

I'm going to give Sticks a two point win...one point for backing the winner, and the other for not coming off like a complete dick while arguing his point.

[MLSKINS]

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports...trout/1707407/

Part of the dilemma is the definition of Most Valuable Player, an interpretation that differs among voters.

If the award was clearly for best player, Trout's argument is that much stronger, especially with all the defensive and baserunning metrics available that show his clear advantage over Cabrera in those areas.

But the "valuable" factor always sways these discussions, allowing for extra credit to players who helped their teams reach the postseason, or for contemplating how significant the player was to what the team achieved.

Cabrera's Tigers made the playoffs – got to the World Series as it turned out, through the voting is completed before the postseason – while Trout's Angels did not. Yet, the Angels had one more victory that Detroit.

The "most valuable" element even crosses into the sabermetric methods that have been at the core of the pro-Trout argument.

Trout's Wins Above Replacement (WAR), the overall measure of quality that includes all aspects of the game, was 10 this year, the best in the majors, according to Fangraphs.com. Cabrera's WAR was 7.1. The Angels' total team WAR, encompassing all players, was 37.4. Detroit's was 21.1.

So, Cabrera contributed 33.6% of his team's total value, Trout 26.7%.

To me, in any sport it all boils down to championships. So heck year I am going to punish Trout for his team not getting in. Yes, he was the best player in the majors this year, but that wasn't good enough to get his team in position to play for a championship. Especially win the race is this close.

If the Angels made the playoffs and the Tigers didn't, I would say that the votes would be flipped into Trout's favor.

[sportjunkie07]

If the Angels made the playoffs and the Tigers didn't, I would say that the votes would be flipped into Trout's favor.

i dont think so. when cabrera won the triple crown he was a lock to get the mvp.

the triple crown is a collection of stats, nothing more. winning it means you were obviously balling and should be at least in mvp discussion, but it in no way guarantees you were the best player that year. you could take 3 random stats like runs, batting average, and home runs and call that the triple crown if you wanted too. leading them all in one year is luck based.

the best argument i see for cabrera is that his team made the playoffs and trout's didnt. but even that argument isn't solid, because it's a team effort.

the way i see it both were really good offensively and though i'd probably favor trout's output, i'm ok with calling it a push.

defensive contribution is another thing entirely. trout clobbers cabrera in that regard.

so for me the mvp would have gone to trout.