Picks, Pats, and Pardons Week 11

[kleese]

Last Week: 10-3-1
Season: 96-49-1
Redskins: 5-4
ATS: 24-15-1 (3-1 Last Week)
Lock: 7-2-1

The hot streak continues; I flamed our on my pick of the Jags over the Colts,
but delivered upset predictions for the Bengals, Titans, and Saints. ATS I am
having my best year yet and crushing my locks. Gotta figure the cool down is
coming, but I've been thinking that for a few weeks now.

Miami at Buffalo: The Dolphins aren't as bad as they showed in their dreadful
effort vs the Titans last week, but I think that is closer to who they are than
their early hot streak would indicate. Buffalo has been a major disappointment
this year, but I expect them to move the ball at will Thursday night.

Bills 27, Dolphins 19

Green Bay at Detroit: The Lions have put themselves in a precarious position
here at 4-5 facing the Packers and Texans in the span of five days. Their season
could be over by this time on Thursday. I often select the more desperate team,
but this year I like the rested Packers to outshoot Detroit.

Packers 31, Lions 27
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www.edkleese.blogspot.com

[Zazzaro703]

My God I've been getting killed at the window where have you been??? Is your posted record just straight up head to head wins or with point spread? Im assuming straight up since i don't see the lines with your prediction.

edit: sorry a deeper read showed me what I was looking for. I play 4 team parlays and pretty much go 3-1 every week. Sucks.

[kleese]

My God I've been getting killed at the window where have you been??? Is your posted record just straight up head to head wins or with point spread? Im assuming straight up since i don't see the lines with your prediction.

edit: sorry a deeper read showed me what I was looking for. I play 4 team parlays and pretty much go 3-1 every week. Sucks.

Parlays should be for fun, not your primary means of wagering. The odds are so absurdly stacked against you...I think the "unit" system works best...decide what one unit is for you...say $100. Then gauge the games on whether you believe strongly enough to bet 1, 1.5, or 2 units and don't stray from that approach.

This year, I'm really riling...9 games over .500 ATS (it will be 10 if the Bills hang on tonight) and 8-2-1 on my locks or "two unit" plays. Doesn't always go this well, but to me the key will always be sticking to whatever strategy you use.