You can't use volume as a measure of effectiveness. It skews everything when you try to do that. You have to find some way to quantify and compare (which is really difficult to do based on different offensive schemes, different defenses affecting the course of a game - both your own and your opponents' - as well as different supporting casts) but the best way is to use some sort of ratio when comparing across the board. Here's how the rookie passers stack up (I'll give five points for first place in any category, four for second place, etc. and see how they stack up in the end):
Completion Percentage:
Griffin III (67.1)
Wilson (63.4)
Tannehill (57.9)
Weeden (57.0)
Luck (55.5)
Yards Per Attempt:
Griffin III (8.19)
Wilson (7.39)
Luck (7.15)
Tannehill (7.05)
Weeden (6.51)
Yards Per Completion:
Luck (12.8)
Griffin (12.2)
Tannehill (12.1)
Wilson (11.6)
Weeden (11.4)
Attempts Per Touchdown
Wilson (16.7)
Griffin (19.1)
Luck (29.6)
Weeden (33.3)
Tannehill (51.8)
Attempts Per Interception
Griffin (81.2) [holy crap!]
Wilson (39.6)
Luck (31.4)
Tannehill (30.2)
Weeden (28.9)
TD:INT Ratio:
Griffin (4.2)
Wilson (2.3)
Luck (1.1)
Tannehill (0.6)
Weeden (0.8)
Quarterback Rating:
Griffin (104.4)
Wilson (95.2)
Luck (76.1)
Weeden (72.3)
Tannehill (72.3)
Totals:
Griffin - 33
Wilson - 27
Luck - 21
Tannehill - 14
Weeden - 10
I think those totals fit in pretty well with the "eye" test and what most have been saying on here. Luck's had some big highs and big lows, while RGIII and Wilson seem to be impressively dynamic in nearly every category. Not surprisingly, Tannehill and Weeden fall far short of the Big Three. Of course, these are just passing numbers. Other arguments can be made for running effectiveness, fumbles, etc. but I was interested in comparing the rookies purely as passers.
Originally Posted by Brandon Lloyd Christmas
"It was like he was Jason on 'Friday the 13th' -- man just wouldn't go down," - Honolulu bar patron on Trent Williams being tasered and smashed over the head with a champagne bottle.
RG3 is I think a lock for RoTY and I don't think it is a contest.
Luck or someone else than RG3 should get RoTW this week, although he played kinda badly with 3 interceptions and a sub 50% completion percentage he did have a last second go ahead TD to bring a victory. If Morris got at least one touchdown, he would be a good nominee.
Agreed. Even though Luck rallied the Colts back from down 33-21 with 4 minutes left, he also threw 3 picks. Wilson beat a terrific Bears defense on the road. It would be a crime if he didn't win it this week.
---------- Post added December-4th-2012 at 04:31 PM ----------
Jaime: good post. But you left out the most important stat of all: wins. Luck would get 5, which would push him ahead of Wilson. That would complete your statistical analysis.
Edit: actually, Wilson would still be ahead of him. So your analysis is flawed. Sorry.![]()
Last edited by Bubble Screen; December-4th-2012 at 03:35 PM.
Agree with you guys. Wilson should get the award this week.
I still disagree that wins is more important for an award for individual performance than other factors, but we'll just disagree there. However, it doesn't seem like those who decide ROY honors necessarily agree with you. Otherwise both Andy Dalton and Mark Sanchez would have won the award for their rookie campaigns since they both ended up in the playoffs, but in both cases the award went to rookies with better statistical performances.Jaime: good post. But you left out the most important stat of all: wins.
It's definitely the most important stat. Wins trumps everything. Dalton and Sanchez had the wins, but not the overall statistics to go along. Cam Newton won it last year because he broke nearly every rookie record out there along the way. Plus 6 wins was a significant improvement over the 2 wins they had the year before. I never said wins was the 'only' factor in the decision process, though.
Last edited by Bubble Screen; December-4th-2012 at 04:03 PM.
To be quite honest Almo should be on the list for this week over RG3
We'll just have to agree to disagree there. I don't think wins come into play at all when you're talking about an award like this. ROTY is an individual award. Way too many other things go into whether the game ends up in the W or L column. RGIII had probably his worst game statistically last night, but we ended up with a close win. If the cowboys had beaten our defense late in the game last week, it would have been a loss for the team but still a great game for Griffin. Individual performances should drive individual awards, not win/loss records that are made up of a ton more factors.
Originally Posted by Brandon Lloyd Christmas
So if winning is the most important stat, then why didn't Andy Dalon win the ROY in 2011?
Last edited by Boss_Hogg; December-5th-2012 at 07:32 AM.
"It was like he was Jason on 'Friday the 13th' -- man just wouldn't go down," - Honolulu bar patron on Trent Williams being tasered and smashed over the head with a champagne bottle.
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