RG3's effect on Free Agency, a past look for future predictions (Warning: Long)

[Forehead]

This is somewhat related to this thread, which asks whether RG3 will make Washington D.C. a more attractive landing spot for free agents. My initial assumption is no, that something of that nature would be more likely in a sport with no salary cap where veterans can latch on for a chance at a ring and still draw a decent paycheck. Though admittedly, the two situations I can think of off the top of my head both occurred in the NBA, when Lebron and Chris Bosh joined forces with Dwyane Wade on the Heat, and when Karl Malone and Gary Payton joined Shaq and Kobe on the Lakers in the earl 2000's. I can't recall any instances of this in football.

I would think that a combination of the salary cap (especially compared to roster size) and the short average careers of football players, leading to them needing to make as much as possible quickly, would naturally prevent this. But like many of my thoughts, just a paragraph or two is never enough, so it's time for a little in-depth exploration using my perception of who the dynamic players were each season (a handful, not every one of them), what "very good" free agents their teams signed, what "very good" free agents left those teams, and where the top free agents of the offseason wound up signing.

For what it's worth, I'll be concentrating on the offensive side of the ball only, since RG3 plays offense, and supposedly there could be an impact on the defensive side, such as Jason Pierre-Paul signing with the Skins because he no longer wants to defend against the RG3 option, etc. Please also note, if a player re-signed with his current team, I did not include them in the signing/leaving lists, because they were already there so the dynamic player didn't "attract them" in the sense that I'm using it. That's why, for instance, Marques Colston isn't on N.O.'s list of FA signings.

2011:

Most Dynamic Players: Drew Brees (shatter passing yards in a season mark), Cam Newton (Rookie QB breaks 4,000 yards passing, accounts for 35 total TD's), Tom Brady-Rob Gronkowski (Brady throws for over 5,200 yards, Gronkowski sets new record for TD receptions by a TE), Calvin Johnson (nearly 1,700 yards receiving and 16 TD's), Ray Rice (2,000+ total yards, 15 TD's), Aaron Rodgers (4,600 yards, 45 passing TD's).

"Big Name" FA signing elsewhere after the season

Carl Nicks (Leaves N.O. for Tampa), None, (Carolina) Benjarvus Green-Ellis (Leaves N.E. for Cincinnati), None, (Detroit) Ben Grubbs (Leaves Baltimore for N.O.), Scott Wells (Leave Green Bay for St. Louis).

"Big Name" FA signed with team prior to next season

Ben Grubbs and Curtis Lofton (N.O.), None (Carolina), None, (N.E.), None (Detroit), None(Baltimore), Cedric Benson (Green Bay).

Where top FA signed

Peyton Manning (Denver), Mario Williams (Buffalo), Brandon Carr (Dallas), Carl Nicks (Tampa), Mike Wallace (Pittsburgh Re-sign), Vincent Jackson (Tampa), Courtland Finnegan (St. Louis), Red Bryant (Seattle Re-sign), Eric Winston (K.C.), Stephen Tulloch (Detroit Re-Sign)

Verdict

This past season showed that dynamic offensive players to not outweigh money or opportunity when it comes to attracting great free agents, or to keeping them. New Orleans was able to attract solid guard Ben Grubbs, but only after superior guard Carl Nicks decided he'd rather block for Josh Freeman than the most prolific passer in history. Scott Wells, in the running for best center in the league, decided to block for Sam Bradford over Aaron Rodgers. The running backs mentioned are borderline "Big Name" at best and both went to worse situations from a stats perspective. Brees might have had an effect on bringing in Curtis Lofton if he got sick of being involved in coverage on four and five wide sets.

Look at the top FA list. Only three of the top ten FA re-signed with their teams, and none of the ones who signed with a new team went to an incredible situation. Only Peyton Manning went to a competent team, and they were fresh off their wave of Tebow magic. After that....Buffalo, Dallas, a pair for Tampa, K.C. Not much going on there. But one year does not a trend make, so lets move on to 2010.

2010:

Most Dynamic Players:

Arian Foster (1,600 yards rushing, 18 Total TD's), Philip Rivers (4,700 yards passing, 30 TD's), Peyton Manning (4,700 yards passing, 33 TD's), Tom Brady (3,900 yards passing, 36 TD's, only 4 INT's), Dwayne Bowe (1,160 yards receiving, 15 TD's) Drew Brees (4,600 yards passing, 33 TD's)

"Big Name" FA signing elsewhere after the season

Vonta Leach (Houston to Baltimore), Darren Sproles (San Diego to N.O.), None (Indy), None (New England), None (Kansas City), Reggie Bush (N.O. to Miami)

"Big Name" FA signed with team prior to next season

Jonathan Joseph (Houston), None (San Diego), None (Indy), None (New England), None, (Kansas City), Darren Sproles (N.O.)

Where top FA signed

Nnamdi Asomugha (Philly), Antonio Cromartie (N.Y. Jets Re-sign), Jonathan Joseph (Houston), Sidney Rice (Seattle), Santonia Holmes (N.Y. Jets Re-sign), Braylon Edwards (S.F.), DeAngelo Williams (Carolina Re-sign), Zach Miller (Seattle), Mathias Kiwanuka (N.Y. Giants Re-sign), Paul Posluszny (Jacksonville), Charles Johnson (Carolina)

Verdict

Once again, we see that the most dynamic players in the league are not attracting fellow top players willing to take less money for a shot at the Super Bowl. The big movers among teams with dynamic players were pass catching RB's and a CB...a CB going to a team with a dynamic RB, not a dynamic passer.

The top FA went to teams like the Texans (not great two years ago), the Jags and the 49'ers, who also weren't so great a few years ago.

Of note, I didn't include Michael Vick in 2010, and maybe I should have. He had around 3,700 total yards and 30 total T.D.'s. He also had 6 INT's, 3 lost fumbles, and an additional eight fumbles that were recovered by his own team. I just didn't think he was quite on the level of the other QB's or the top RB/WR I included. If I had, Nnamdi Asomugha might have been an example of a dynamic talent attracting more dynamic talent, but in general, I think it is safe to say that money talks first.

I had planned on doing five years of examples but this takes a lot longer than I had expected. The sum of it it, RG3 may be able to attract quality depth for the Skins, as well as a few solid starters, but if you're expecting top shelf guys to take less money to play with him, I think you're dreaming. But QB's like Brady have shown you can succeed with middle of the road guys so long as you have a dynamic QB, draft well, and play the system well.

[DMVSkins]

I think the RGIII effect would only be for WR's and TE's

[Gurgeh]

I seem to recall Ross Tucker saying a similar thing a couple of years ago. With very few exceptions, players follow the money, not the team.

[2v2nv]

I seem to recall Ross Tucker saying a similar thing a couple of years ago. With very few exceptions, players follow the money, not the team.

I agree with this to a point. If I was a WR and the Jets wanted to pay me 10k more dollars than the Patriots, and I was starting for both, I would personally take the loss and go to the Pats. (not saying I like the pats)

[Forehead]

I think the RGIII effect would only be for WR's and TE's

Quite possibly, but I wanted to include the defense somewhere. I could imagine a top CB saying "screw it, I'm joining him" but it doesn't go much further than imagining, since in reality it rarely happens. What's going to make D.C. attractive to FA's is Snyder continuing to open his checkbook, hopefully in a responsible manner.

---------- Post added December-6th-2012 at 12:46 PM ----------

I agree with this to a point. If I was a WR and the Jets wanted to pay me 10k more dollars than the Patriots, and I was starting for both, I would personally take the loss and go to the Pats. (not saying I like the pats)

To a point, clearly. For the amount of money we're talking, I'd take 10K less for a shot at a ring. For an extra 10 million, I'll chant the J-E-T-S song as ai sign my contract.

[2v2nv]

To a point, clearly. For the amount of money we're talking, I'd take 10K less for a shot at a ring. For an extra 10 million, I'll chant the J-E-T-S song as ai sign my contract.

Lol I concur. I'd put on a Firemen hat and a Sanchez jersey for their games for 10k more than my current salary lol.

At theirs, my point is that it would depend on the team and the money.

[Koolblue13]

I think that may change to a point. I think it has something to do with the amount of money a bad team will pay a high end FA, compared to a better team. Of course, the better teams don't usually need the better player as badly, being that they've probably been good for a few years and have had the chance to build players behind the guys who leave. I would also venture to guess that if a guy is allowed to walk and be a FA, he was probably not a guy his teammates really wanted to have around.

[BurgundyBlood]

NFL example was Charles Haley and Deion Sanders signing with hot young Dallas squad back in early 90s

[Thinking Skins]

I think your list is a bit biased by only looking at "Big names". The RG3 effect may be largest amongst the middle tier players who want to set themselves up for that next contract. They may think that they have a better chance to be a part of a system here with RG3 than being in say Arizona where there is no QB and no system, but maybe more money.

[Truant]

That Philly team, with Mike Vick looking like he was back, turned into the hilariously named "dream team". Jenkins, Asomugha, Babin, Young, etc...

http://thestartingfive.net/2011/08/0...n-free-agency/

Nnamdi Asomugha said that he chose to sign with the Philadelphia Eagles because he felt they “are closer to the Super Bowl than the New York Jets.” The Birds newest defensive end Pro Bowler Jason Babin called the Eagles, “The Miami Heat of the NFL.” and Vince Young used the term “Dream Team” when asked about the Eagles acquisitions last Friday and Saturday.

Even during the Eagles recent free agent bonanza Michael Vick still seemed to be at the center of it all. Vince Young talked about how he was looking forword to pushing Vick to be the best quarterback that he can be while getting his own career back on track. Former Green Bay Packers defensive end Cullen Jenkins sounded relieved in explaining how he doesn’t have to chase MV7 around anymore. And prized acquisition Nnamdi Asomugha told the Philadelphia press how Vick made his pitch for him to join the Eagles at the Pro Bowl last season. Newest addition Ronnie Brown signed a one-year deal to join Vick and others in Philly.

I’ll go on record saying that Michael Vick’s play last season was the greatest free agent lure the Eagles could’ve wished for. Now as they assemble one of the better rosters in the NFL, the Eagles expect to make a run at the Super Bowl with Vick leading the way.

Will a player turn down far more money to play with a top talent? Likely not. Will a player with comparable options prefer to play in a system that can work for them on a team that is successful? I think that's certainly possible.

[Forehead]

I think your list is a bit biased by only looking at "Big names". The RG3 effect may be largest amongst the middle tier players who want to set themselves up for that next contract. They may think that they have a better chance to be a part of a system here with RG3 than being in say Arizona where there is no QB and no system, but maybe more money.

I stuck with big names because if I didn't, it would have taken forever, and frankly, I'm not sure a roster long on middle of the road talent and short on a few other high end pieces gets us where we need to go. As for the Vick thing, as much as they were "dream team this and that" Asomugha was the only premier player that actually joined the team that could be related to Vick's performance. Babin was/is a one trick pony, Jenkins is solid but not a superstar, and Vince Young had issues and probably should have never opened his mouth. I don't think it was even close to what the Miami Heat pulled off.

As you'll recall (directed more at Truant) a majority of this board scoffed at the Eagles because they were setting themselves up to fail the way the Skins did.

[wes]

NFL example was Charles Haley and Deion Sanders signing with hot young Dallas squad back in early 90s

I agree! Another example would be Reggie White signing with GB instead of the Skins. The Packers were far better suited to win the superbowl than the Skins were.

[Thinking Skins]

http://www.fftoolbox.com/football/nf...ngs.cfm?pos=WR

Here's a site giving a list of the FA signings. Not sure if its all of them, but you can see the more successful ones and stuff.

[DC9]

Remember when we lost the Eddie Royal battle over a few decimal points?

I'd be willing to be that mother ****er is still at Morton's.

[clskinsfan]

I think the RGIII effect would only be for WR's and TE's

I think alot depends on the FA players age. If said player feels the Redskins have a good chance to go to the Super Bowl and that player has already cashed in on a big money deal. He may take a little less for that chance at a championship. Look at the Patriots. They sign older big name FA's for cheap for this reason alone. And that goes for offensive or defensive players.

"Washington's new quarterback, the excitement and leadership of Robert Griffin III may begin to pay dividends in the offseason as players will want to come and play with him."

http://www.footballsfuture.com/2013/fa/wr.html