Well, I've done a Just the Stats thread for four weeks, and we've won four times. I see no reason not to continue, but we're going to put a new twist on things. Everyone seems to be under a misconception that Cleveland is actually a good team, that their defense is revamped, etc. I'm just not seeing it. Let's go to the stats:
Redskins Rushing YPG = 167.5 (1) vs. Browns Rush Defense YPG = 120.5 (18) = Advantage Redskins
Redskins Passing YPG = 218.9 (21) vs. Browns Pass Defense YPG = 242.7 (21) = Push
Redskins Total YPG = 386.5 (5) vs. Browns Total Defense YPG = 363.2 (23) = Advantage Redskins
Redskins Scoring PPG = 26.4 (7) vs. Browns Defense PPG = 20.9 (9) = Push
Browns Rushing YPG = 100.5 (24) vs. Redskins Rush Defense YPG = 98.8 (7) = Advantage Redskins
Browns Passing YPG = 221.4 (20) vs. Redskins Pass Defense YPG = 289.3 (31) = Edge Browns
Browns Total YPG = 321.8 (26) vs. Redskins Total Defense YPG = 388.1 (28) = Push
Browns Scoring PPG = 19.9 (24) vs. Redskins Defense PPG = 25.3 (23) = Push
*These are significant changes from previous weeks. We continue to have advantages in the running game on both sides of the ball, as we have had in every game during our win streak. The difference now is that disadvantages we've had previously in the passing game are now pushes. Why? Because the Browns aren't very good.
Brandon Weeden is a 27 year old rookie with 13 TD's and 15 INT's. His completion rate is 57%. He is the 32nd rated QB in the league, which would make him the worst starting QB in the league if it weren't for Mark Sanchez and Ryan Tannehill. Some teams (including the Jags) have two QB's with higher ratings than Weeden. His leading receiver by number of catches is Richardson, the RB. By yards, it's wideouts Josh Gordon and Greg Little. Little has terrible hands. Gordon has all of 42 catches. Now true, our leading receiver by catches, Josh Morgan, also has 42 catches. We have four different receivers over 400 yards, and one of them hasn't played half the year. They have Gordon, Little, and then jack ****.
Weeden isn't Romo, Manning, or even Joe Flacco. He'll get some yards but he isn't to be feared, not even with our pathetic secondary. An interception is probably a given, maybe even more than one. Weeden is over 3,000 yards passing...guess what, Cleveland has been trailing at halftime in every game except three this year. They have to pass to keep up, because....their defense isn't that good, yet everyone seems to think they are.
I respect Trent Richardson, but he's averaging 1.4 LESS ypc that Alfred Morris. Including things like a sterling 27 yard effort against the Buffalo Bills. Bottle him up and force Weeden to do something, and we're in good shape. Back to the stats.
Redskins Punting Average = 44.3 (24) vs. Browns Punt Return Average = 15.9 (2) = Major Advantage Browns
Browns Punting Average = 41.9 (30) vs. Redskins Punt Return Average = 9.3 (18) = Edge Redskins
Redskins Kickoff Return Average = 23.5 (17) vs. Browns Kickoff Return Average = 24.9 (13) = Push*
Josh Cribbs is a weapon, no doubt about it, and I guess someone named Travis Benjamin had a nice game last week. We need to be careful punting to them. Luckily, we have an advantage the other way since the Browns have one of the worst punters in the league.
Redskins Turnover Margin = +12 (5) vs. Browns Turnover Margin = +8 (9) = Push
Seems respectable until you remember the Steelers game where a Charlie Batch led Pittsburgh squad imploded and gave the ball away eight times. Without that game, they're in the middle of the league and we have an edge here. All the games count, but again, this is not a defense we need to lose sleep over facing. If London Fletcher played for the Browns, he would be tied for the lead in INT's. D-Hall, as much as we ***** about him, has more INT's than either of the Browns CB's.
Redskins Penalties PG = 8.07 (32) vs. Browns Penalties PG = 6.84 (24) = Edge Browns
We'll pretty much always lose this one, luckily the Browns are pretty undisciplined as well.
Redskins Sacks = 23 (28) vs. Browns Sacks Allowed = 24 (7) = Major Advantage Browns
Browns Sacks = 34 (7) vs. Redskins Sacks Allowed = 29 (17) = Edge Browns
This looks pretty bad, the Browns have a decent O-line anchored by Joe Thomas. Cleveland's sacks are very spread around. No one has more than five (and he's a 3rd down rush specialist), but five guys have three or more. None of their linemen are particularly scary. Jabaal Sheard had a good rookie campaign but has dropped off this season. Phil Taylor is a load in the middle but is more of a lane clogger than a playmaker. I can't imagine RG3 feeling too threatened if he plays and has close to his normal mobility.
Redskins 3rd Down Conversion % = 33.1% (29) vs. Browns 3rd Down Defense = 35.6% (7) = Major Advantage Browns
Browns 3rd Down Conversion % = 31.0% (30) vs. Redskins 3rd Down Defense = 45.1% (32) = Push
Redskins 1st Downs PG = 21.07 (9) vs. Browns 1st Downs Allowed PG = 21.07 (22) = Advantage Redskins
Browns 1st Downs PG = 17.53 (27) vs. Redskins 1st Downs Allowed PG = 21.69 (26) = Push
I'm not used to seeing any Redskins colors this far down, and yet we have an advantage here. This great Browns defense allows plenty of 1st downs, though they do get off the field well on 3rd down. Our 3rd down defense has been atrocious all season, but luckily, the Browns offense is bad enough that they won't be able to take nearly as much advantage of it. Remember those methodical, slow death drives the Giants were putting together on us? Cleveland doesn't have the ability to do that very well. They just don't. And for the love of God, look at the numbers. We can move on their defense. If RG3 plays close to full strength, we should win this without our heart rates going into overdrive. Frankly, I think we can take them with Cousins as well, but it will be closer.
*Just an FYI, I compared Kickoff Return Averages rather than Kickoff Average vs. Return Average, since there are so many touchbacks.
As for the designations at the end, it went like this. 1-6 ranks difference was a push, 7-12 ranks was an edge, 13-18 was an advantage, 19-24 was a major advantage, and 24+ is DOOM (a word I rather enjoy)