Just the Stats: Washington vs. Cleveland. Otherwise known as "why are we over-rating the Browns so much?

[Forehead]

Well, I've done a Just the Stats thread for four weeks, and we've won four times. I see no reason not to continue, but we're going to put a new twist on things. Everyone seems to be under a misconception that Cleveland is actually a good team, that their defense is revamped, etc. I'm just not seeing it. Let's go to the stats:

Redskins Rushing YPG = 167.5 (1) vs. Browns Rush Defense YPG = 120.5 (18) = Advantage Redskins

Redskins Passing YPG = 218.9 (21) vs. Browns Pass Defense YPG = 242.7 (21) = Push

Redskins Total YPG = 386.5 (5) vs. Browns Total Defense YPG = 363.2 (23) = Advantage Redskins

Redskins Scoring PPG = 26.4 (7) vs. Browns Defense PPG = 20.9 (9) = Push

Browns Rushing YPG = 100.5 (24) vs. Redskins Rush Defense YPG = 98.8 (7) = Advantage Redskins

Browns Passing YPG = 221.4 (20) vs. Redskins Pass Defense YPG = 289.3 (31) = Edge Browns

Browns Total YPG = 321.8 (26) vs. Redskins Total Defense YPG = 388.1 (28) = Push

Browns Scoring PPG = 19.9 (24) vs. Redskins Defense PPG = 25.3 (23) = Push

*These are significant changes from previous weeks. We continue to have advantages in the running game on both sides of the ball, as we have had in every game during our win streak. The difference now is that disadvantages we've had previously in the passing game are now pushes. Why? Because the Browns aren't very good.

Brandon Weeden is a 27 year old rookie with 13 TD's and 15 INT's. His completion rate is 57%. He is the 32nd rated QB in the league, which would make him the worst starting QB in the league if it weren't for Mark Sanchez and Ryan Tannehill. Some teams (including the Jags) have two QB's with higher ratings than Weeden. His leading receiver by number of catches is Richardson, the RB. By yards, it's wideouts Josh Gordon and Greg Little. Little has terrible hands. Gordon has all of 42 catches. Now true, our leading receiver by catches, Josh Morgan, also has 42 catches. We have four different receivers over 400 yards, and one of them hasn't played half the year. They have Gordon, Little, and then jack ****.

Weeden isn't Romo, Manning, or even Joe Flacco. He'll get some yards but he isn't to be feared, not even with our pathetic secondary. An interception is probably a given, maybe even more than one. Weeden is over 3,000 yards passing...guess what, Cleveland has been trailing at halftime in every game except three this year. They have to pass to keep up, because....their defense isn't that good, yet everyone seems to think they are.

I respect Trent Richardson, but he's averaging 1.4 LESS ypc that Alfred Morris. Including things like a sterling 27 yard effort against the Buffalo Bills. Bottle him up and force Weeden to do something, and we're in good shape. Back to the stats.

Redskins Punting Average = 44.3 (24) vs. Browns Punt Return Average = 15.9 (2) = Major Advantage Browns

Browns Punting Average = 41.9 (30) vs. Redskins Punt Return Average = 9.3 (18) = Edge Redskins

Redskins Kickoff Return Average = 23.5 (17) vs. Browns Kickoff Return Average = 24.9 (13) = Push*

Josh Cribbs is a weapon, no doubt about it, and I guess someone named Travis Benjamin had a nice game last week. We need to be careful punting to them. Luckily, we have an advantage the other way since the Browns have one of the worst punters in the league.

Redskins Turnover Margin = +12 (5) vs. Browns Turnover Margin = +8 (9) = Push

Seems respectable until you remember the Steelers game where a Charlie Batch led Pittsburgh squad imploded and gave the ball away eight times. Without that game, they're in the middle of the league and we have an edge here. All the games count, but again, this is not a defense we need to lose sleep over facing. If London Fletcher played for the Browns, he would be tied for the lead in INT's. D-Hall, as much as we ***** about him, has more INT's than either of the Browns CB's.

Redskins Penalties PG = 8.07 (32) vs. Browns Penalties PG = 6.84 (24) = Edge Browns

We'll pretty much always lose this one, luckily the Browns are pretty undisciplined as well.

Redskins Sacks = 23 (28) vs. Browns Sacks Allowed = 24 (7) = Major Advantage Browns

Browns Sacks = 34 (7) vs. Redskins Sacks Allowed = 29 (17) = Edge Browns

This looks pretty bad, the Browns have a decent O-line anchored by Joe Thomas. Cleveland's sacks are very spread around. No one has more than five (and he's a 3rd down rush specialist), but five guys have three or more. None of their linemen are particularly scary. Jabaal Sheard had a good rookie campaign but has dropped off this season. Phil Taylor is a load in the middle but is more of a lane clogger than a playmaker. I can't imagine RG3 feeling too threatened if he plays and has close to his normal mobility.

Redskins 3rd Down Conversion % = 33.1% (29) vs. Browns 3rd Down Defense = 35.6% (7) = Major Advantage Browns

Browns 3rd Down Conversion % = 31.0% (30) vs. Redskins 3rd Down Defense = 45.1% (32) = Push

Redskins 1st Downs PG = 21.07 (9) vs. Browns 1st Downs Allowed PG = 21.07 (22) = Advantage Redskins

Browns 1st Downs PG = 17.53 (27) vs. Redskins 1st Downs Allowed PG = 21.69 (26) = Push

I'm not used to seeing any Redskins colors this far down, and yet we have an advantage here. This great Browns defense allows plenty of 1st downs, though they do get off the field well on 3rd down. Our 3rd down defense has been atrocious all season, but luckily, the Browns offense is bad enough that they won't be able to take nearly as much advantage of it. Remember those methodical, slow death drives the Giants were putting together on us? Cleveland doesn't have the ability to do that very well. They just don't. And for the love of God, look at the numbers. We can move on their defense. If RG3 plays close to full strength, we should win this without our heart rates going into overdrive. Frankly, I think we can take them with Cousins as well, but it will be closer.

*Just an FYI, I compared Kickoff Return Averages rather than Kickoff Average vs. Return Average, since there are so many touchbacks.

As for the designations at the end, it went like this. 1-6 ranks difference was a push, 7-12 ranks was an edge, 13-18 was an advantage, 19-24 was a major advantage, and 24+ is DOOM (a word I rather enjoy)

[JMUSkins]

We probably thought we'd dominate the Panthers as well. Didn't Joe Gibbs hype up every team we ever played because he knew how important it was to treat every team in this league as a true NFL team?

That being said, I'm sure the coaching staff is looking at tape and these type of stats to figure out how we can exploit their weaknesses. This is a very winnable game, but let's not go in expecting it to be a cakewalk... though I really do appreciate your analysis.

[skins2323]

if we show up and play like we did vs. the ravens or Giants, we win. if we dont, we lose. Pretty simple.....

[Forehead]

Don't get me wrong, I'm not underrating or looking past the Browns, I'm just utterly perplexed by the prevailing attitude that the Browns have a tough, hard-nosed defense. They really don't. They seem a lot like Baltimore, give up tons of yards, stiffen up a bit in the red zone to keep other teams to field goals. And yet, we talked about Baltimore's defense being soft as Charmin while the Browns are suddenly tough, despite the fact that they have generally the same rankings. It's a perception thing, you expect Baltimore to be tough and Cleveland to suck. Baltimore has gotten worse, and Cleveland has gotten better, but they're both still bad.

If Griffin plays, I'm confident. We just hung 31 on the Ravens, and this is a similar team, only their defense gets far fewer takeaways, and their offense isn't nearly as good.

[justice98]

The Browns still aren't good, they beat Oakland, KC, and Pittsburgh with Charlie Batch as the QB. They're still one of the worst teams in the league.

[CTskins]

Because:

1) We are fans
2) The All-World Starting Quarterback for our favorite team is questionable.
3) The patchwork offensive line that has performed better than the sum of its parts for a uber-mobile QB may very well have to adjust their technique on a dime and block for a pocket passer.

It's as simple as that.

[Pride]

It's not a matter of stats, it's a matter of that in all games except Pitt, we played to the level of our competition up or down. It's been a bad habit of ours in recent years and people are so used to us letting games like this slip away. Confidence and trust must be earned and this week they have a chance to earn some by beating a team they should.

[TimFolk]

We're riding high on a four game win streak the dmv is buzzing.. I just dont want the players to start smelling themselves.. Browns are the best team we'll face all year as long as it gets the team hyped and amped and ready to go!!

[demarc007]

The Browns are not a good team if you want to just look at statistics but we all know stats don't mean anything on Sunday. The Browns play tougher than your typical below average team like the Raiders, Cardinals, Jags, Chiefs, etc. Look at their schedule and you will see they have lost several close games. The only game you can say they were blown out was against the Giants and they were up 14 in that game before the wheels came off. They are coached well, very scrappy, and play in a tough physical division. Also they are 4-1 at home starting in Week 6. They are young at several key positions as well and as the record shows it took some time for them to put some things together, just like us. This will be a dog fight and I'm sure Shanny is driving that point home.

[Forehead]

A point of counter-argument. If you use a TD as the difference between a "close loss" and "not being in the game" because really, that's a fluid opinion, the Browns have lost five games by seven or less (two of them exactly as seven) and three games by more than seven points. You know who else lost just a little more than half their games by seven or less? Us, the past two seasons. I don't think anyone is going to say the last two Skins teams were tougher than a typical below average team.

Cleveland can be as tough as it wants...the fact is that our offense scores a lot of points, and should be able to do so on their defense, especially if Griffin plays. Their offense is not dynamic at all, despite the fact that our defense isn't very good. I don't think they have the weapons to keep up....again, dependent on Griffin playing. But it's also why I'm confident that Cousins can do the job if needed.

[#BgMase76#]

Taking into account that their last three wins came against the Raiders, Chiefs, and one other sub par squad. Shanny and staff have earned my trust. Whoever starts Sunday will be well prepared and ready to go and beat the browns. I trust Cousins arm and decision making. I expect us to lean heavily on the run game and mix in some P/A to keep them honest.

[Forehead]

Also, this isn't directed at any one person in particular, but I've always hated the refrain that "stats don't matter" or that they mean nothing. At this point in the season, they can be a pretty accurate predictor of what should happen, to say they don't matter is the phrase of a lazy person who doesn't want to do any research. My opinion.

Face it, I've done this the last four games, as we've had few advantages in any of them going in, other than the running game and the turnover battle. Wouldn't you know it, we won all four games by dominating on the ground and hanging on just enough on defense. Only once in the past four games did we have higher passing yards, though Griffin did throw a number of TD passes. Stats also showed that turnovers were one of the few areas where we enjoy an advantage, and guess what, we won the turnover battle in three of these four games. Stats showed that the Giants would kill us on 3rd down....anyone remember how excruciating that first half was where we couldn't get off the field?

Fact is, assuming Griffin plays, we should move the ball and we should score. They will move the ball but not nearly as well as the last three teams. I don't think you're going to see too many total statistical outliers at this point in the season unless Kirk Cousins comes unhinged and tosses four picks.

[MustangSteve]

We have played some of the best teams, the best offenses, the best defenses and the best QB's in the NFL this season and beat all but Atlanta, who I believe we could beat now. This team has come together at the right time, late in the season. I am not skeered of the damn Browns, their QB, RB or defense. Yes they play close games, but in no way should we lose to them or even let them within double digits by games end. They Played Dallas hard but so did Philly who we blew out. Lets bust their ass and we will enter the Playoffs this Sunday. "You heard it here 1st"!

---------- Post added December-11th-2012 at 10:48 AM ----------

Taking into account that their last three wins came against the Raiders, Chiefs, and one other sub par squad. Shanny and staff have earned my trust. Whoever starts Sunday will be well prepared and ready to go and beat the browns. I trust Cousins arm and decision making. I expect us to lean heavily on the run game and mix in some P/A to keep them honest.

I almost hope we start Cousins just so many people will see why we drafted this kid. His accuracy is off the chart, well over 100 and Im with ya on trusting our coaches to have him ready with a game plan that will lay points on the board. He was placed above Rex Grossman for a good reason, this kid is very accurate and will lite the Browns defense up!

[RandyHolt]

Before this year, hadn't we been an a horrid losing streak or have a pathetic recent record, to teams on losing streaks?

We all remember we had been on quite a pathetic showing against rookie QB's which we finally broke, but finally decided to get after a rookie QB, and broke that goose egg.

I learned long ago to not overlook an opponent, and am sure many here share that sentiment. Cleveland has won 3 in a row and is in the hunt for the playoffs and is still going to be pissed about thinking RG3 was too short cough missing out.

This game will not be easy no matter the QB. We do not cake walk, Haslet lays off the heat with a big lead.

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

I guess because we've been bitten on the ass that many times over the last 20 years or so that folk wouldn't take a pop warner team lightly.

The over hyping of Cleveland though is taking things to the extreme.

Hail.