I was reading something about the deficit reduction that has occured. Simpson-Bowles is said to have $4T in debt savings over 10 years.
There are discretionary caps for spending; which is projected to save $1T (need $3T to hit S-B).
The revenue from tax increases is $600B (still $2.4T short of S-B).
So the question over the debt ceiling is this: I suspect 2014 is finally the year we get the "grand bargain" many are pushing for, and it will include tax reform (and more revenues) plus changes to entitlements. I was reading some of the Senate speechs from Democrats, and it seems like some of the Dem Senators are more willing to tackle entitlements than I previously thought (won't make the left-left happy but neither extreme will be happy).
I would expect Obama to be now saying 1:1 raises in revenue for any cuts, so if the GOP doesn't get any consessions they will be looking at $1.2T even on both sides to get to the $2.4T proposed by S-B. If the GOP is able to get more cuts (like $600B) they changed the equation and it's more like $900B-$900B to get to the $4T.
I've been known to miss on my political guessing games, but I'd bet the GOP tries to punt the debt ceiling to after 2014 elections.