HTTR24-7: Roster Review: Redskins Running Backs

[TheGreek1973]

Disagree with " The most stupid thing you can do" ....

Running Back is a spot you don't want to invest too much money into. The league has a few outliers but you can get the same production out of a rookie that you can out of a vet. No reason to pay a lot of money to a RB when it is not necessary.

Shanahan feels his system creates these backs to a extent..

2011- Redskins Running backs- 1,489 yards
2012 Alfred Morris 1,613 yards

How much money do you want to commit for a difference of 124 yards..

I love Alfred but Mike's history is what it is... Running Backs are poker chips to him.

are you saying the production Morris got this year is the same "quality" as our backs got in 2011? I don't think so. RGIII and even Cousins works so well with Morris. Both of these QBs are on the same "page" as him. that is a huge plus beyond how many yards each got.

I am not saying spend the house on him, but at least pay him as a number one pick.

[Botched]

Disagree with " The most stupid thing you can do" ....

Running Back is a spot you don't want to invest too much money into. The league has a few outliers but you can get the same production out of a rookie that you can out of a vet. No reason to pay a lot of money to a RB when it is not necessary.

Thank god I'm not the only person who realizes this.

[TheGreek1973]

Thank god I'm not the only person who realizes this.

you guys don't realize one thing. Yes Mike S has been using most of his backs as "chips" and he probably feels like anyone can rush for 1000 yards in his offense but when he finds a back like Morris, durable, perfect for his offense I am not so sure he will use him as a "chip" Case and point Terrell Davis. he rode him to two SBs.

[darrelgreenie]

Keep developing Helu, keep drafting mid/late round one-cut RBs (Christine is a back I like as well), give Alfred a fair (not break the bank deal) with the hope of continued success that results in a trade for draft picks

[Alcoholic Zebra]

2011- Redskins Running backs- 1,489 yards
2012 Alfred Morris 1,613 yards

How much money do you want to commit for a difference of 124 yards..

I love Alfred but Mike's history is what it is... Running Backs are poker chips to him.

It's really not just 124 yards. That's a gross simplification.

The difference is that 2011 had 350 RB carries. 2012 had 335 for Morris. Morris averaged 4.82 yards per carry. 2011 backs averaged 4.25 yards per carry.

According to Football Outsiders:
Alfred Morris had a success rate of 52%, which is 7th in the league. Roy Helu had a success rate of 47%, which was 24th. Evan Royster/Tim Hightower didn't have enough runs to qualify for this stat.

In 2011 our Adjusted Line Yards was 4.21. The running back yards for that was 4.19.
In 2012 our Adjusted Line Yards was 4.25. Our running back yards for that was 4.72.

In terms of average yards gained between 5-10 yards past the LoS, were we 5th in the league this season compared to 15th last season. Alfred Morris isn't a burner, but we were still 13th in average yards for runs that went 10 or more. In 2011 we were 25th in that category.

We were 3rd in the league with the lowest % of our runs being stuffed this season. In 2011, we were 19th in the league.

Alfred Morris improved as the season went on. We can't say that his ability to make the right reads, press the hole, and cut back didn't also improve. He got more comfortable in this scheme and with this line. We can't make long term estimates about Morris based off of one season. He's got a 4 year contract, we don't have to rush to make decisions on how long he'll be here. Alfred Morris's running style is one that does not rely on speed, acceleration, and elite athleticism. Morris makes the right cuts, at the right time by setting up blockers or pressing the hole. That trait is a bit more prone to longevity than say speedsters.

If Morris improves some more, he could deserve a few year extension. If Morris shows again that he's very durable and doesn't get injuries, that's valuable. He could deserve an extension. Thankfully, this whole topic is moot for another season, since right now we only have 1 year to go off of. But I don't think we can just write him off as another guy that would fade. He has less mileage at age 25 than other RB's do.

[Lavarleap56]

are you saying the production Morris got this year is the same "quality" as our backs got in 2011? I don't think so. RGIII and even Cousins works so well with Morris. Both of these QBs are on the same "page" as him. that is a huge plus beyond how many yards each got.

I am not saying spend the house on him, but at least pay him as a number one pick.

Yards are yards bro, doesn't matter if they a pretty or dirty, the result is the same. Alfred is more talented then the backs of 2011 so don't think i'm trying to discredit him. Think you are making way to much of " RG and Cousins being on the same page as morris".. Most QB's can hand off and pitch to any back.

Pay him as a number 1 pick? What?..

---------- Post added January-18th-2013 at 04:00 PM ----------

you guys don't realize one thing. Yes Mike S has been using most of his backs as "chips" and he probably feels like anyone can rush for 1000 yards in his offense but when he finds a back like Morris, durable, perfect for his offense I am not so sure he will use him as a "chip"

Clinton Portis was a perfect fit for a Mike Shanahan offense, better than TD and Alf. I think people forget how special the Portis/Shanahan combination was in Denver. CP was a complete back you could use on all three downs running or receiving out of the backfield. Alf is a hell of a runner but his game is limited as a receiver out of the backfield, not a huge knock but one that limits "value".

Just for kicks:

CP under Mike : 563 carries, 3,099 yards =, 5.5 YPC, 29 Tds, 71 receptions, 678 yards 9.5 average, 2 Tds ( In a traditional offense)


Portis wanted a new deal and Shanny thought he deserved the money but still traded him because he didn't want to pay top dollar to a RB.

Alf is good but vs Cleveland he found yards a lot harder to come by than in the zone read.

Case and point Terrell Davis. he rode him to two SBs.

TD had 4 good years then fell off the cliff.. Can't move a RB that isn't healthy.

---------- Post added January-18th-2013 at 04:01 PM ----------

you guys don't realize one thing. Yes Mike S has been using most of his backs as "chips" and he probably feels like anyone can rush for 1000 yards in his offense but when he finds a back like Morris, durable, perfect for his offense I am not so sure he will use him as a "chip"

Clinton Portis was a perfect fit for a Mike Shanahan offense, better than TD and Alf. I think people forget how special the Portis/Shanahan combination was in Denver. CP was a complete back you could use on all three downs running or receiving out of the backfield. Alf is a hell of a runner but his game is limited as a receiver out of the backfield, not a huge knock but one that limits "value".

Just for kicks:

CP under Mike : 563 carries, 3,099 yards =, 5.5 YPC, 29 Tds, 71 receptions, 678 yards 9.5 average, 2 Tds ( In a traditional offense)


Portis wanted a new deal and Shanny thought he deserved the money but still traded him because he didn't want to pay top dollar to a RB.

Alf is good but vs Cleveland he found yards a lot harder to come by than in the zone read.

Case and point Terrell Davis. he rode him to two SBs.

TD had 4 good years then fell off the cliff.. Can't move a RB that isn't healthy.

[rk3025]

We have contracts for next year on Helu for $672,000, Royster $555,000 and Morris for $509,000 plus Davis, K Williams and Hightower waiting in the wings for a chance. These were contracts according to draft rounds and Morris will get paid after contract is over by us or another team if not traded for draft need or pick that we gave for RG3.

[Rypien1191]

Disagree with " The most stupid thing you can do" ....

Running Back is a spot you don't want to invest too much money into. The league has a few outliers but you can get the same production out of a rookie that you can out of a vet. No reason to pay a lot of money to a RB when it is not necessary.

Shanahan feels his system creates these backs to a extent..

2011- Redskins Running backs- 1,489 yards
2012 Alfred Morris 1,613 yards

How much money do you want to commit for a difference of 124 yards..

I love Alfred but Mike's history is what it is... Running Backs are poker chips to him.

True but at the same time, Alf doesn't seem like the kind of guy who is gonna go bolting out the door looking for a max deal as soon as his 4 years are up. As of now he loves the team, the city, his teammates...If him and RG3 are still healthy and successful, I could see him staying and us paying him a modest deal. I love CP but lets be honest their personalities aren't the same.

True that apart from the elite guys like AP, backs are pretty close to each other in talent but you also don't want to let a guy like Alf who is so humble and runs so hard and works so hard out the door...

[TheGreek1973]

hey Lavarleap56....See Alcoholic Zebra's post above your reply to me. It explains very well what I ment by "quality" production. Yards are not just yards dude, especially average per carry. Morris was putting the offense in 2nd and 4 or 2nd and 3 time after time. That is HUGE.

having said this yea if someone gives us a 2nd round pick and a top 5 CB I would make that trade with Morris.

[mojo]

True but at the same time, Alf doesn't seem like the kind of guy who is gonna go bolting out the door looking for a max deal as soon as his 4 years are up. As of now he loves the team, the city, his teammates...If him and RG3 are still healthy and successful, I could see him staying and us paying him a modest deal. I love CP but lets be honest their personalities aren't the same.

True that apart from the elite guys like AP, backs are pretty close to each other in talent but you also don't want to let a guy like Alf who is so humble and runs so hard and works so hard out the door...

I think the next offseason will determine the Skins future with Morris, IF he has another monster year.
1) We hold steady on his contract and he holds out (perfectly acceptable in my opinion, he would be financially raped by the team if we held to a 6th rd rookie deal)
2) We renegotiate a new deal
3) We trade him

I agree with Lavaleap. The days of sinking a ton of money into a running back are gone. I'd prefer to get some picks and continue with younger RB's

[Botched]

If Morris has another 1600 yard, 10+ TD season, we can and should trade him for a 1st round pick. There are plenty of sucker teams out there who still use 1st round picks for running backs.

[Lavarleap56]

It's really not just 124 yards. That's a gross simplification.

The difference is that 2011 had 350 RB carries. 2012 had 335 for Morris. Morris averaged 4.82 yards per carry. 2011 backs averaged 4.25 yards per carry.

According to Football Outsiders:
Alfred Morris had a success rate of 52%, which is 7th in the league. Roy Helu had a success rate of 47%, which was 24th. Evan Royster/Tim Hightower didn't have enough runs to qualify for this stat.

In 2011 our Adjusted Line Yards was 4.21. The running back yards for that was 4.19.
In 2012 our Adjusted Line Yards was 4.25. Our running back yards for that was 4.72.

In terms of average yards gained between 5-10 yards past the LoS, were we 5th in the league this season compared to 15th last season. Alfred Morris isn't a burner, but we were still 13th in average yards for runs that went 10 or more. In 2011 we were 25th in that category.

We were 3rd in the league with the lowest % of our runs being stuffed this season. In 2011, we were 19th in the league.

Alfred Morris improved as the season went on. We can't say that his ability to make the right reads, press the hole, and cut back didn't also improve. He got more comfortable in this scheme and with this line. We can't make long term estimates about Morris based off of one season. He's got a 4 year contract, we don't have to rush to make decisions on how long he'll be here. Alfred Morris's running style is one that does not rely on speed, acceleration, and elite athleticism. Morris makes the right cuts, at the right time by setting up blockers or pressing the hole. That trait is a bit more prone to longevity than say speedsters.

If Morris improves some more, he could deserve a few year extension. If Morris shows again that he's very durable and doesn't get injuries, that's valuable. He could deserve an extension. Thankfully, this whole topic is moot for another season, since right now we only have 1 year to go off of. But I don't think we can just write him off as another guy that would fade. He has less mileage at age 25 than other RB's do.

1. I never said anything about a extension... I said in 4 years he won't be the RB based on Shannys history,

2. I'm familiar with all the advanced metrics from various different sites and think some have merit and some do not. The difference is pretty marginal between 2011-2012. FO doesn't have a accurate formula to judge the back vs the front he's facing, and that is needed in this discussion IMO.

Morris did have the benefit of running against one less defender for a good majority of his carries. Defenses also could not really key in on him with Robert at QB vs Grossman.. A lot of different variables.

3. Longevity- It doesn't matter if he is a speed or power guy. I'm aware of Alfred's skill set but he takes a pounding with his running style. The amount of tackles he breaks and players he carries on his back add up over time.Marion Barber is a good example, every time he ran people questioned how long he could hold up being as physical as he was. Every tackle on a player adds up over time...

You have to look at RB's like new cars... Soon as they get of the lot the miles add up and the value depreciates a little bit.

I think Morris is one hell of a RB BUT I also believe it is imperative to stay young at the position rather than a trend..

---------- Post added January-18th-2013 at 06:25 PM ----------

True but at the same time, Alf doesn't seem like the kind of guy who is gonna go bolting out the door looking for a max deal as soon as his 4 years are up.

I didn't say he was but in 4 years he will be 28.. That is not the age you want to try to get a new 4-5 year deal at.

As of now he loves the team, the city, his teammates...If him and RG3 are still healthy and successful, I could see him staying and us paying him a modest deal. I love CP but lets be honest their personalities aren't the same.

Shanny didn't trade CP because of a personality issue.. Shanny has said he felt CP was worth the money he wanted and he couldn't/wouldn't pay him that, so he gave him the opportunity to get it somewhere else. Alf is a first class guy BUT nobody plays for free and Agents are agents for a reason, don't assume Alf will just play for whatever.

[Rypien1191]

I agree we won't sink much money into Alf or any RB, I just hope he stays and we can make it work for whatever. I love how he runs and I love rooting for the guy.

And we definitely need another RB, especially with Helu a ?

[Warhead36]

Morris is a lot more than just a system back. Certainly the system helps but I saw him consistently hit holes hard, break tackles, and he has more than enough speed to get away when he gets a big hole. He's a hell of a back and would be a 1200+ yard guy on any team.

We need a speed guy for 3rd downs. A Darren Sproles or Jaquiz Rodgers type. That would put our O over the top because everything else is set(assuming Davis returns healthy).

[Lavarleap56]

Mike Shanahan's history with rookie Running Backs in case you forgot...

1995- T.Davis - 1,117 yards 4.7 average Drafted- 6th round

1999-O.Gary - 12 games 1,159 yards 4.2 average Drafted- 4th round

2000- M.Anderson - 1,487 yards 5.0 average - Drafted- 6th round

2002- C.Portis - 1,508 yards 5.5 average - Drafted - 2nd round

2005- T.Bell - 921 yards 5.3 average -Drafted - 2nd round

2011- R.Helu - 641 yards 4.2 average- Drafted - 4th round

2011- E.Royster- 328 yards 5.9 - Drafted - 6th round

2012- A.Morris - 1,614 yards 4.8 average - Drafted 6th round

---------- Post added January-18th-2013 at 06:43 PM ----------

Morris is a lot more than just a system back. Certainly the system helps but I saw him consistently hit holes hard, break tackles, and he has more than enough speed to get away when he gets a big hole. He's a hell of a back and would be a 1200+ yard guy on any team.

We need a speed guy for 3rd downs. A Darren Sproles or Jaquiz Rodgers type. That would put our O over the top because everything else is set(assuming Davis returns healthy).

I never said he was a system back...