I feel like I'm taking crazy pills: How to fix the Redskins

[Atlanta Skins Fan]

Yeesh.

OK: on to 2005.

Reality Distortion Field #1: Redskin Park

I'd like to be optimistic, but right now I'm seeing too many errors in judgment coming from the Gibbs braintrust to have much confidence. This boat has a lot of leaks, and they're not getting fixed fast enough to compensate for the surprise leaks that are sure to come.

Examples are legion, but right now my biggest problem is with the offensive coaching, from Gibbs to Bugel to Breaux to Hixon, the WR coach. It's a tough thing to take on guys I revere, so I won't dwell on it here ... much as I avoided doing so during the season.

Suffice it to say: I think these guys are seeing what they want to see, not things as they are. And I think their reputations (Gibbs, Bugel, Breaux) are cementing their views, silencing contrary opinions, and isolating those who dare challenge them. And on a more fundamental level, their player coaching skills, game planning and in-game cognitive powers aren't what they were.

Worse, it's hard for me to see these qualities getting better. They are a symptom of age -- not an essential symptom, but a common one.

I think certain players were isolated and marginalized early this past year out of some kind of personal antipathy -- most notably Ramsey and McCants, for different reasons. It's all off-stage to us, but that's my take. I think certain other players were overrated by coaches, most notably Brunell, Gardner, Thrash (as a WR) and Dockery ... suppressing the development of Ramsey, McCants and Jacobs and instilling higher confidence in the OL than was earned.

I also have detected some denial of reality from Bugel and Gibbs at times ... a denial bordering on peevishness. Bugel at various times slighted Ramsey and the WRs, when so much fault could be laid at his own unit's door. Now they seem to have decided that the WRs are the problem, and they plan to ship out Gardner and McCants. While I will be glad to see Gardner go, shipping out McCants at the same time is doubly a mistake: it creates a vacuum at WR that impels a fix through a high draft pick (Mike Williams or Braylon Edwards).


Reality Distortion Field #2: ExtremeSkins

So far the smart money seems to be lining up for either a high WR pick, or a high DE pick (perhaps after sliding down a few slots).

While I think our WRs have problems with or without Gardner, I don't think the best way to start fixing the offense is by picking a top WR. What our offense lacks is consistency, drive and purpose: and you don't get consistency by just dropping in a great WR (assuming you get that lucky with the pick). What you get is more losses punctuated by some nice highlight plays.

Assuming Gregg Williams sticks around, picking a DE #1 is pure silliness. I have huge respect for Williams, and it's now all too evident that he could gather a pack of homeless men ... and in a few weeks coach them up to an NFL level. The last thing we need is a mindless QB hunting machine at DE, with so many other pressing needs on offense ... and our defense already ranked #2 without LaVar. (Evidence enough that Williams doesn't need star athletes ... as shown everywhere else in his defense.)


The ASF plan to fix the Redskins

This is really quite simple. Maybe they'll do it ... but I'm not holding my breath.

1. Make a formal deal among Snyder, Gibbs and Williams, by which Williams is guaranteed to be the next head coach of the Washington Redskins. Put it on paper as a contract, with a few options for raises along the way if it takes time to happen. Put poison pills in the deal ... so Williams forfeits big money if he leaves for another team, and the team forfeits even more money if they renege on the promise. Make it such a slam-dunk, perfect deal that Williams doesn't even think about leaving the team. There's your defense done ... for a good long time.
   
2. Realize that our offense (with these coaches and our existing talent) must be a running offense more than anything else. Turn that coaching plus Portis/Betts into a strength ... and extend the strength through the draft. Convert the #9 pick in the first round into THREE interior linemen and one TE with strong blocking ability. Major on the center position with TWO high picks. (I have strong feelings about strong centers.)
   
   It could be these four guys (as an example):
   
   David Baas: G/C
   Ben Wilkerson: C
   Elton Brown: G
   Joel Dreesen: TE/H-back
   
   Figure that Baas and Wilkerson will fight it out for the #1 center spot, while Baas and Brown press Dockery at RG (RIGHT GUARD). Randy Thomas moves to LG. Keep Friedman or Raymer around for insurance, in case the rookies aren't ready by week 1.
   
   Add Jansen and Samuels, and that's one strong OL that's on its way UP. Dreesen gets a look at TE and backup H-back behind Cooley.
   
   In the backfield, suddenly Ramsey has time to throw, and Portis and Betts have the power up front to make long grinding drives.
   
   Oh yeah ... WR. Here's the thing: if the other nine guys on offense do their jobs, you don't need star WRs. We could get by just fine on Coles, Jacobs, McCants and Thrash for a year, if our running game is dominating. And then ... in 2006 ... we add the icing, the star WR.

It won't happen this way. But that's what I'd do.

Carry on: fruit cup, please.

[pr11fan]

I can definetly agree to getting some interior lineman like a guard and a center if possible, (though I wouldn't mind Mike Williams) but we absolutely can't guarantee GW the hc spot under any circumstances at least not formally, remember the minority interviewing rule, we'd lose a draft pick and knowing how the league seems to treat us like the red-headed step child it would likely be a first round choice.

[Art]

ASF,

Let me say that I agree with you about a number of mistakes made by Gibbs and company. However, some of those mistakes stem from the natural lack of familiarity one might expect from a head coach who'd been out of the league for 12 years, and an offensive staff of various degrees of retirement, or near retirement.

Observations made at the time are done based on conversations had with those you trust and film work. There's something to be said about close, intimate knowledge of a player that Gibbs and company largely did not and could not have had.

This is why Williams was so successful. Guys like Salave'a and Clark, though retreads, were guys this defensive staff had close knowledge of. They KNEW how they could be utilized within what they wanted to accomplish. Guys like Griffin, Barrow, Daniels were well known to the staff as well in much the same way.

Only players who jumped out to this group like Springs and Washington were selected over players more known, because the defensive staff knew what they knew and knew when something was better.

On offense, Gibbs largely had to figure things out.

Not only did he have to learn his own offense again, but he had to learn what every one of his players could do and what each could not do. Unlike in his first go around here, he couldn't have the knowledge of opposing teams to know who to pick up to help.

More, one thing Gibbs always knew how to do was to expose weakness in opposition players. Again, this is stuff that comes from playing teams and seeing how they perform up close and coming to understand how the tape measures with the experience.

I don't know how quickly -- if at all -- this type of knowledge will come back to Gibbs.

However, given a full season under his belt, he can now probably be said to know exactly what he believes he needs and he'll have a far greater level of insight as to the types of players necessary to fit those roles.

I think noticing the failures is fine. I think Gibbs noticed them as well. I just think you don't have quite as much to worry about though as you think.

[inmate running the asylum]

Let's not also forget, the 2004 Redskin team was not nearly as bad as their record would seem to reflect. Aside from being in every ball game -- primarily due to the defense -- we were robbed certainly of at least two games by officiating.

The Skins were truthfully probably an 8-8 team last season, rather than the 6-10 record they had.

[dfbovey]

If Gibbs has proven anything in his lifetime, it's that he is a very adaptable guy.

He'll figure it out.

[SkinsHokieFan]

I agree with parlaying that number 9 pick into lineman.

I love Elton Brown and think he would be better then Dockery from day 1.

I would suggest adding a FA center rather then a rookie, although this FA center pool looks weak this year.

A solid blocking TE is a must. If the Skins play their hands right they can grab him in the draft as well.

DE can be addressed through FA once again. I am not impressed by any of these DE prospects

[feeshta]

Originally posted by dfbovey
If Gibbs has proven anything in his lifetime, it's that he is a very adaptable guy.

He'll figure it out.

Agreed wholeheartedly, and as I've stated in another post I believe he already is working on a new offensive scheme.

I like the idea of getting a monster line started, but I think it is folly to assume that any arangement of talent can get the job done. We could have the entire starting lineup for the NFC in the probowl and the QB would still not have all day every play. NFL defenses are simply getting too good at disquising where the preasure will come from, and I think you have to assume less time than more to be successful in the league as it exists today. I think the only priority position on the line is center. If you can find a guy who is better at any of the other positions that is nice, but it is not the major priority for this team to improve.

I think the coaching staff needs to really focus on the offensive philosophy and stress getting the ball out of Ramsey's hands more quickly. He has shown he can adapt this year, and that he is willing to listen to his coaches and change the way he plays. They also need to focus on maximuzing Portis' effectiveness in the run game as a major priority.

[Oldskool]

I posted this in another thread

Look at the O line:

OT Jansen – Solid, coming back from injury ahead of schedule

OG Thomas – Solid. Veteran that is still playing at a high level

C (???) Needs to be addressed in FA. Ideally you do not want a rookie anchoring your line, plus Wilkerson, who is the #1 Center rated in the draft wont be off the board until the 2nd round.

OG Dockery – improving. A work in progress, Dockery will get better this year or he will be replaced one way or another. Right now he’s not a detriment nor is he an asset.

OT Samuels – steady. Not the elite player he was projected to be but not a liability either. Samuels is in jeopardy of being cut due to his contract but we have Molinaro ready to step in.

The problem with the offense last year didn’t really have to do with the talent of the offensive line. To improve the O-line next year, you need to

• Have Bugel’s blocking scheme adapt to 21st century defenses and incorporate more of a zone blocking scheme.
• Replace Raymer/Friedman with a solid, veteran center that has been in a few different systems.
• Improve Ramsey’s knowledge and comfort level in Gibb’s system and work on his technique.
• And last but not least, add a player, either via FA or draft that can stretch the field and free up Coles from double teams.

None of these things are drastic and none of them need to be addressed specifically via the draft. The offense had started to click at the end of the year, now with tweeks and a added piece or two it will start to run like it should.

The problem with parlaying picks into a O line draft is that Bugel and Gibbs dont like to have rookies in key positions, especially ones as key as Center.

Center and possibly LG are the weaknesses on this team.

If we had a full compliment of picks, I'd suggest that wetrade down and draft O lineman, but we dont.

We should take a center with our 3rd round pick but we should keep our #9 unless we get an offer that blows us away.

[BG]

it is back

[thinker]

Originally posted by Atlanta Skins Fan
).

Convert the #9 pick in the first round into THREE interior linemen and one TE with strong blocking ability.

Maybe I'm misreading this - but how do you convert a #9 pick into FOUR players? Is there some kind of trade that someone would do? Some of the players you list as wanting are highly rated. Generally, trading a #9 will get us a lower 1st rounder and a 2nd rounder. How do you make a trade for FOUR picks? Maybe a top 5 pick with a franchise qb on the clock, but not at #9.

[Atlanta Skins Fan]

Originally posted by thinker


Maybe I'm misreading this - but how do you convert a #9 pick into FOUR players? Is there some kind of trade that someone would do? Some of the players you list as wanting are highly rated. Generally, trading a #9 will get us a lower 1st rounder and a 2nd rounder. How do you make a trade for FOUR picks? Maybe a top 5 pick with a franchise qb on the clock, but not at #9.

You do it in two or more hops.

First you parlay the #9 into a slightly lower pick by trading with a team that "must" have a particular player at #9. (Last year the Browns kicked in a #2 just to move up a slot.) This initial bump should net a #2 pick and preserve a mid-#1.

Then you trade to the back of #1 and pick up a low #1 and a low #2. (Running total ... low #1, mid #2, low #2.)

Finally you trade the low #1 for a high #2 and a high #3. Final total:

high #2
mid #2
low #2
high #3

... and that buys you three great interior OL plus a TE/H-back with good blocking skills.

Obviously the trade scenario I outlined is a "best case," but you get the idea. You can definitely get four picks out of the #9, all in the second and third rounds. If you're lucky, as many as three picks are in the 2nd round, but worst case is one second rounder and three third-rounders. And that still lets you execute this strategy ... or alternatively, you might keep three higher picks instead of diluting them by getting four.

[spanishomelette]

Crazy pills? I've read crazier. Depth on the oline I think is key, and that scenario would be great, but thinker has a point. Baas and maybe another would go in the 1st round while the 'skins have all 2nd rounders in this scenario.

That's a lot of trade downs, but when they traded down again and again to get Ramsey they got a lot of picks out of that. This time though why not just try to pick up a 2nd and use that to get a prospect and/or look to later rounds for Molinaro, Wilson types. Maybe even use a trade-down 1st to get one of the OL highraters.

McCants is still there. It doesn't look good, but I'm not counting him gone yet.

[hail2skins]

If Williams' side of the ball continues to play this well, I doubt we're going to be able to keep him as DC during an entire five-year Gibbs contract run. I predict he's out of here by the end of 2006.

[Hog Fever]

While I would agree with you that Center is one of our most pressing needs for the off season I’m not going to fall into the trap of judging our defense this year based solely on stats.

The fact is this year we have rarely been able to generate any pass rush without a blitz of some kind which leaves us open to big plays. Shawn Springs lead our team in sacks this year. SHAWN SPRINGS!

We need a DE that can bring some heat. In fact we’ve needed a player like that since Manley and Mann rode into the sunset. It would make a solid unit even better. It will also go a long way to making a defensive backfield that may be without Smoot next year look a lot better as well.

Yes, Williams can make due with the material he has, but why should we not aspire to give him more to work with? How good could this defense be with a dominant DE?

Ultimately my off season wish list looks a lot like yours. Mine would look like this:

1. Center – The QB of the O-Line
2. Pass rushing DE – As I stated above.
3. Blocking TE – This was a real weak spot this year.


Lesser needs:
1. Short yardage back - A real hammer like Riggs was.
2. Guard - We should have Ray Brown available for at least one more year so this is not as high as on your list.
3. O-Line depth
4. WR
5. CB – can never have enough good corners

[Yusuf06]

Good to see you back ASF!!

I agree with most of what you've written. However I think attempting to get THAT many OL is probably overkill. I think we could do quite nicely with say Bass and Wilkerson or Brown. Getting two of the three plus a blocking TE would make our OL exponentially better. C would be the top priority for me though...and how good would that 2nd round pick we lost (indirectly) for Brunell look now??

You touched on something else I've been wondering about. Would Randy Thomas be better at the LG spot ? He would certainly seem to be ideally suited for it given his good mobility. I suspect he and Samuels pulling together could be quite devastating. However I don't know that Thomas would be too excited about making the switch.

I disagree with you on the contention that Williams doesn't need a DE to make his defense work. True, he got very good results with what he had this season however I'd like to see what he can do without having to blitz all the time in order pressure the QB. We could further solidify our investment in Griffin at DT by getting a true pass rushing DE to take some of the attention away from him. Unfortunately, we just don't have enough picks to address everything this offseason so I'd probably pass on this need for now and look at what we can get in F.A. or perhaps next season.

As for McCants, I'm a big fan of his as well. I've even called him (potentially) a poor man's T.O. and I stand by that assessment. However, unless we're planning on incorporating elements of the WCO into our offense next season, he and the team are probably better off seeking a trade with a team that can better use his skill set. Bringing in the QB coach from the Jags could change this so we'll have to wait and see how this one plays out. I admit I'd still like to see us start some combo of Coles, Jacobs and McCants next season.

Finally as for Gibbs I'm probably a bit more optimistic than you are. The big question is whether his shortcomings this season were due to rust or if his critical thinking skills and the speed at which he can use them have deteriorated. Even if the latter is the case, the addition of a good O.C. could fix this as I think Gibbs is still as talented an admistrator/manager/motivator of people as there ever was in the NFL.

Welcome back bro. Don't be such a stranger in the future.